* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES/OHC INPUT INCLUDED * TWENTY-FIV 10/22/05 12 UTC TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 30 33 35 37 41 46 51 56 54 53 51 46 34 V (KT) LAND 30 33 35 37 33 38 43 47 45 45 43 37 25 SHEAR (KTS) 14 18 17 15 12 10 6 26 44 70 85 100 84 SHEAR DIR 344 356 13 49 54 64 69 190 211 228 258 290 305 SST (C) 30.1 29.9 29.8 29.8 29.8 29.7 28.9 28.1 26.9 26.3 23.1 21.2 22.3 POT. INT. (KT) 165 165 165 165 165 165 155 143 128 122 98 88 93 200 MB T (C) -52.8 -52.2 -51.9 -52.0 -52.1 -51.5 -50.7 -48.9 -49.1 -48.9 -49.3 -49.0 -48.8 TH_E DEV (C) 12 13 13 13 13 13 11 3 1 1 0 0 0 500-300 MB RH 58 51 51 56 55 51 56 52 33 28 35 39 34 MO FLX (M/S/D) -1 -3 -1 -1 0 0 0 6 7 31 17 13 8 850 MB VORT -19 -28 -33 -36 -45 -78 80 164 155 176 112 68 23 LAND (KM) 244 183 133 37 -32 41 244 498 497 601 584 1022 1696 LAT (DEG N) 15.8 16.5 17.1 17.8 18.4 20.1 23.2 27.6 32.3 37.2 41.4 42.5 39.8 LONG(DEG W) 67.5 68.7 69.9 70.9 71.8 73.8 75.3 75.1 72.0 66.5 56.2 41.6 29.0 HEAT CONTENT 120 109 118 97 9999 78 60 30 9 3 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM BAMM STORM HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KTS) 285/ 13 CX,CY: -12/ 3 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB) 614 (MEAN=643) 200 MB DIVERGENCE x10**5 (T=0) -17 (MEAN= 23) T-12 MAXIMUM WIND (KTS) 25 GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 100-300 KM RAD: 27.7 (MEAN=20.0) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 74.0 (MEAN=68.9) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 7. 8. 9. 10. 11. 11. 12. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 1. 3. 7. 12. 16. 18. 21. 21. 21. 20. VERTICAL SHEAR 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 5. 6. 6. 8. 11. 11. 7. PERSISTENCE 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 2. 1. 0. 0. 200 MB TEMP. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -6. -8. -11. -13. -15. -17. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. -3. -5. -9. -12. -15. 500-300 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. -1. 850 MB ENV. VORT. 0. -1. -2. -3. -5. -6. -3. 0. 4. 6. 7. 7. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -6. -7. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -1. -2. -2. -1. ---------------------------------------------------------- SUB-TOTAL CHANGE 2. 3. 5. 7. 12. 17. 23. 23. 24. 23. 17. 5. INTENSITY ADJUSTMENTS FROM SATELLITE INPUT 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- MEAN ADJUSTMENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES IR STD DEV 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES IR PIXEL COUNT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 2. 1. -1. -1. -1. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL ADJUSTMENT 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 4. 3. 1. -1. -1. -2. -2. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE (KT) 3. 5. 8. 11. 16. 21. 26. 24. 23. 21. 16. 4. ** 2005 ATLANTIC RAPID INTENSITY INDEX ** ( 25 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) TWENTY-FIV 10/22/05 12 UTC 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): Value: 5.0 Range: -20.0 to 25.0 Scaled value: 0.88 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : Value: 15.0 Range: 42.5 to 2.5 Scaled value: 0.69 SST (C) : Value: 29.9 Range: 24.3 to 30.4 Scaled value: 0.91 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : Value: 135.0 Range: 27.1 to 136.4 Scaled value: 0.99 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): Value: 73.4 Range: 57.0 to 88.0 Scaled value: 0.53 % area w/pixels <-30 C: Value: 68.0 Range: 17.0 to 100.0 Scaled value: 0.61 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : Value: 27.7 Range: 37.5 to 8.0 Scaled value: 0.33 Scaled RI index= 4.95 Prob of RI= 35.0% is 2.9 times the sample mean(12.1%)