* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES AND/OR OHC INPUT MISSING * WILMA 10/22/05 18 UTC TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 90 87 86 85 83 75 65 54 48 44 37 29 19 V (KT) LAND 90 79 87 86 84 76 54 50 43 39 32 24 DIS SHEAR (KTS) 8 12 17 19 23 33 37 45 38 48 65 78 73 SHEAR DIR 175 156 158 154 155 171 175 196 193 221 236 261 266 SST (C) 28.8 28.8 28.8 28.8 28.8 28.5 28.3 27.7 26.3 24.7 19.3 12.0 12.7 POT. INT. (KT) 154 154 154 154 154 149 146 138 122 108 82 71 71 200 MB T (C) -50.1 -50.8 -50.6 -50.4 -49.1 -49.5 -48.3 -48.5 -48.5 -48.6 -48.2 -46.0 -45.8 TH_E DEV (C) 11 11 9 9 8 6 3 1 1 0 0 0 0 500-300 MB RH 49 48 49 48 52 51 36 23 14 17 21 27 38 MO FLX (M/S/D) 4 2 6 4 8 23 10 8 -5 -14 31 33 31 850 MB VORT 100 122 112 121 122 135 195 198 238 259 232 199 178 LAND (KM) -20 -6 20 97 158 167 -36 445 625 443 374 177 650 LAT (DEG N) 21.2 21.5 21.7 22.3 22.8 24.3 26.6 30.7 35.8 40.1 43.1 45.9 48.4 LONG(DEG W) 87.1 87.1 87.1 86.5 85.9 83.7 80.5 75.3 68.8 62.7 57.5 51.1 44.1 HEAT CONTENT 9999 86 77 75 82 57 9999 20 3 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI STORM HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KTS) 0/ 2 CX,CY: 0/ 2 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB) 581 (MEAN=643) 200 MB DIVERGENCE x10**5 (T=0) 65 (MEAN= 23) T-12 MAXIMUM WIND (KTS) 110 GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 100-300 KM RAD: -99.0 (MEAN=20.0) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: -99.0 (MEAN=68.9) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 7. 8. 9. 10. 11. 11. 12. SST POTENTIAL 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 0. -4. -10. -17. -26. -36. -44. VERTICAL SHEAR 0. -2. -4. -8. -17. -23. -29. -30. -28. -25. -20. -16. PERSISTENCE -5. -6. -7. -8. -7. -8. -9. -7. -5. -4. -1. 0. 200 MB TEMP. -1. -1. -2. -3. -6. -9. -12. -15. -17. -20. -23. -28. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -3. -6. -9. -12. -15. -19. -23. 500-300 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. 850 MB ENV. VORT. 1. 2. 3. 4. 7. 11. 17. 22. 29. 33. 36. 38. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -6. -7. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. ---------------------------------------------------------- SUB-TOTAL CHANGE -3. -4. -5. -7. -15. -25. -36. -42. -46. -53. -61. -71. INTENSITY ADJUSTMENTS FROM SATELLITE INPUT 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- MEAN ADJUSTMENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES IR STD DEV 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES IR PIXEL COUNT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL ADJUSTMENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE (KT) -3. -4. -5. -7. -15. -25. -36. -42. -46. -53. -61. -71. ** 2005 ATLANTIC RAPID INTENSITY INDEX ** ( 25 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) WILMA 10/22/05 18 UTC 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): Value: -20.0 Range: -20.0 to 25.0 Scaled value: 0.00 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : Value: 16.1 Range: 42.5 to 2.5 Scaled value: 0.66 SST (C) : Value: 28.8 Range: 24.3 to 30.4 Scaled value: 0.74 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : Value: 63.8 Range: 27.1 to 136.4 Scaled value: 0.34 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): Value: 68.8 Range: 57.0 to 88.0 Scaled value: 0.38 % area w/pixels <-30 C: Value: 98.0 Range: 17.0 to 100.0 Scaled value: 0.98 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : Value: 8.2 Range: 37.5 to 8.0 Scaled value: 0.99 Scaled RI index= 4.08 Prob of RI= 12.8% is 1.1 times the sample mean(12.1%)