* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES/OHC INPUT INCLUDED * ALPHA 10/22/05 18 UTC TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 35 38 41 44 47 51 54 56 57 59 57 50 39 V (KT) LAND 35 38 41 37 33 40 43 45 46 48 46 40 29 SHEAR (KTS) 18 18 17 16 17 12 4 22 56 91 96 85 63 SHEAR DIR 348 11 37 51 52 77 342 293 301 292 288 284 274 SST (C) 29.9 29.8 29.8 29.8 29.8 29.0 27.8 26.1 25.7 17.2 10.8 14.7 12.4 POT. INT. (KT) 165 165 165 165 165 157 139 120 116 77 70 73 71 200 MB T (C) -52.5 -52.1 -52.2 -52.4 -52.1 -51.7 -50.2 -48.8 -49.0 -49.8 -49.2 -46.9 -45.7 TH_E DEV (C) 14 13 13 13 13 12 11 3 0 0 0 0 0 500-300 MB RH 53 51 58 56 55 52 49 53 49 33 32 34 44 MO FLX (M/S/D) -4 -7 -5 -2 -1 0 0 8 16 26 15 42 3 850 MB VORT -19 -23 -24 -35 -54 -86 56 108 163 103 39 57 72 LAND (KM) 179 132 47 -29 -44 320 878 941 695 367 434 857 1250 LAT (DEG N) 16.5 17.2 17.8 18.6 19.3 22.8 27.7 33.6 39.2 43.4 46.8 49.3 51.2 LONG(DEG W) 68.5 69.5 70.4 71.2 72.0 72.8 70.7 65.9 58.8 52.9 47.2 41.3 36.0 HEAT CONTENT 100 110 100 9999 9999 55 20 1 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI STORM HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KTS) 305/ 13 CX,CY: -10/ 7 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB) 591 (MEAN=643) 200 MB DIVERGENCE x10**5 (T=0) 9 (MEAN= 23) T-12 MAXIMUM WIND (KTS) 30 GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 100-300 KM RAD: 24.8 (MEAN=20.0) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 87.0 (MEAN=68.9) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 7. 8. 9. 10. 11. 11. 12. SST POTENTIAL 1. 1. 2. 4. 8. 12. 15. 16. 15. 13. 11. 8. VERTICAL SHEAR 0. 0. 0. 0. 2. 4. 6. 9. 15. 22. 25. 24. PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 2. 2. 1. 0. 0. 200 MB TEMP. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -6. -8. -10. -12. -16. -20. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -3. -5. -9. -12. -15. 500-300 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 850 MB ENV. VORT. 0. -1. -2. -3. -5. -6. -4. -1. 1. 2. 2. 3. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -6. -7. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- SUB-TOTAL CHANGE 2. 4. 6. 8. 12. 17. 21. 23. 24. 23. 17. 6. INTENSITY ADJUSTMENTS FROM SATELLITE INPUT 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- MEAN ADJUSTMENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES IR STD DEV 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES IR PIXEL COUNT 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL ADJUSTMENT 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 2. 1. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE (KT) 3. 6. 9. 12. 16. 19. 21. 22. 24. 22. 15. 4. ** 2005 ATLANTIC RAPID INTENSITY INDEX ** ( 25 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) ALPHA 10/22/05 18 UTC 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): Value: 5.0 Range: -20.0 to 25.0 Scaled value: 0.88 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : Value: 17.2 Range: 42.5 to 2.5 Scaled value: 0.63 SST (C) : Value: 29.8 Range: 24.3 to 30.4 Scaled value: 0.90 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : Value: 130.0 Range: 27.1 to 136.4 Scaled value: 0.94 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): Value: 74.6 Range: 57.0 to 88.0 Scaled value: 0.57 % area w/pixels <-30 C: Value: 81.0 Range: 17.0 to 100.0 Scaled value: 0.77 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : Value: 24.8 Range: 37.5 to 8.0 Scaled value: 0.43 Scaled RI index= 5.13 Prob of RI= 41.1% is 3.4 times the sample mean(12.1%)