* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES/OHC INPUT INCLUDED * WILMA 10/23/05 00 UTC TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 85 86 88 88 85 77 68 59 51 41 28 DIS DIS V (KT) LAND 85 86 88 88 85 68 59 50 43 33 19 DIS DIS SHEAR (KTS) 11 15 16 22 29 34 49 50 50 60 77 75 64 SHEAR DIR 167 162 157 171 168 181 190 212 226 250 261 270 272 SST (C) 28.8 28.8 28.8 28.8 28.6 28.2 28.1 26.2 21.1 16.8 13.9 9.8 13.7 POT. INT. (KT) 154 154 154 154 151 145 143 121 88 76 72 69 72 200 MB T (C) -50.5 -50.4 -50.2 -49.1 -49.3 -49.1 -47.8 -47.2 -47.4 -47.4 -47.2 -46.1 -44.5 TH_E DEV (C) 11 9 9 7 6 3 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 500-300 MB RH 51 50 52 52 52 50 35 20 14 13 18 32 49 MO FLX (M/S/D) 5 9 9 10 4 21 -32 17 28 26 15 30 39 850 MB VORT 102 107 116 123 124 195 250 297 309 178 74 59 56 LAND (KM) 11 66 123 151 171 -9 382 392 316 110 146 358 973 LAT (DEG N) 21.6 22.0 22.4 23.2 24.0 26.1 29.9 35.2 40.7 44.3 45.5 47.7 50.4 LONG(DEG W) 87.0 86.7 86.3 85.5 84.7 81.7 77.0 71.6 66.2 60.6 55.0 48.0 39.8 HEAT CONTENT 83 74 77 79 69 26 30 2 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI STORM HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KTS) 10/ 3 CX,CY: 1/ 3 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB) 622 (MEAN=643) 200 MB DIVERGENCE x10**5 (T=0) 18 (MEAN= 23) T-12 MAXIMUM WIND (KTS) 100 GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 100-300 KM RAD: 7.1 (MEAN=20.0) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 98.0 (MEAN=68.9) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 7. 8. 9. 10. 11. 11. 12. SST POTENTIAL 1. 2. 3. 4. 3. 1. -5. -12. -22. -32. -40. -47. VERTICAL SHEAR -1. -2. -5. -8. -16. -23. -27. -26. -22. -18. -12. -8. PERSISTENCE 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 200 MB TEMP. -1. -1. -3. -4. -6. -10. -13. -17. -20. -23. -27. -32. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -5. -7. -10. -14. -18. -22. -25. 500-300 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. 850 MB ENV. VORT. 1. 2. 3. 4. 8. 13. 21. 29. 34. 34. 34. 32. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -7. -8. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- SUB-TOTAL CHANGE 0. 0. -1. -4. -11. -21. -29. -35. -43. -56. -69. -81. INTENSITY ADJUSTMENTS FROM SATELLITE INPUT 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- MEAN ADJUSTMENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES IR STD DEV 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. GOES IR PIXEL COUNT 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 1. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL ADJUSTMENT 1. 3. 4. 4. 4. 3. 2. 1. 0. -1. -2. -2. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE (KT) 1. 3. 3. 0. -8. -17. -26. -34. -44. -57. -71. -83. ** 2005 ATLANTIC RAPID INTENSITY INDEX ** ( 25 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) WILMA 10/23/05 00 UTC 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): Value: 0.0 Range: -20.0 to 25.0 Scaled value: 0.71 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : Value: 18.8 Range: 42.5 to 2.5 Scaled value: 0.59 SST (C) : Value: 28.8 Range: 24.3 to 30.4 Scaled value: 0.73 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : Value: 68.1 Range: 27.1 to 136.4 Scaled value: 0.38 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): Value: 67.6 Range: 57.0 to 88.0 Scaled value: 0.34 % area w/pixels <-30 C: Value: 95.0 Range: 17.0 to 100.0 Scaled value: 0.94 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : Value: 7.1 Range: 37.5 to 8.0 Scaled value: 1.00 Scaled RI index= 4.69 Prob of RI= 24.9% is 2.1 times the sample mean(12.1%)