* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES/OHC INPUT INCLUDED * ALPHA 10/23/05 00 UTC TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 40 45 49 53 57 62 66 67 64 56 47 36 22 V (KT) LAND 40 38 39 43 46 51 55 57 54 46 37 25 DIS SHEAR (KTS) 12 12 11 9 7 6 18 31 49 68 92 75 67 SHEAR DIR 18 30 26 10 20 357 275 292 295 295 294 293 284 SST (C) 29.8 29.7 29.7 29.5 29.1 28.3 26.8 26.0 25.6 17.7 14.2 17.4 15.5 POT. INT. (KT) 165 165 165 165 159 146 127 119 115 78 73 78 74 200 MB T (C) -52.2 -52.1 -52.0 -51.7 -51.4 -51.3 -48.7 -48.7 -49.4 -49.4 -48.4 -47.3 -45.3 TH_E DEV (C) 14 14 13 14 13 11 6 2 0 0 0 0 0 500-300 MB RH 50 53 54 48 49 51 57 40 27 25 23 27 39 MO FLX (M/S/D) -2 -3 -3 0 0 0 5 11 1 -13 4 3 56 850 MB VORT -30 -38 -58 -87 -103 -23 142 185 -1 -70 -73 -35 9 LAND (KM) 117 -24 11 140 256 673 729 772 668 445 570 959 1332 LAT (DEG N) 17.3 18.6 19.9 21.1 22.2 25.9 31.6 36.4 39.7 42.8 45.5 47.0 48.3 LONG(DEG W) 69.6 70.5 71.4 71.9 72.4 71.6 69.5 64.6 57.9 51.8 45.9 40.1 34.9 HEAT CONTENT 107 9999 91 75 57 25 8 0 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI STORM HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KTS) 305/ 12 CX,CY: -9/ 7 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB) 616 (MEAN=643) 200 MB DIVERGENCE x10**5 (T=0) 14 (MEAN= 23) T-12 MAXIMUM WIND (KTS) 30 GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 100-300 KM RAD: 15.3 (MEAN=20.0) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 89.0 (MEAN=68.9) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 7. 8. 9. 10. 11. 11. 12. SST POTENTIAL 1. 2. 3. 5. 8. 11. 12. 13. 11. 8. 5. 3. VERTICAL SHEAR 0. 1. 2. 3. 6. 9. 11. 14. 18. 23. 25. 24. PERSISTENCE 2. 4. 5. 5. 6. 6. 6. 6. 4. 2. 1. 0. 200 MB TEMP. 0. -1. -1. -1. -3. -5. -8. -10. -12. -15. -18. -22. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -4. -7. -10. -14. -17. 500-300 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. 850 MB ENV. VORT. -1. -1. -3. -4. -6. -5. -2. -1. -3. -5. -7. -7. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -7. -8. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- SUB-TOTAL CHANGE 4. 7. 10. 13. 18. 23. 26. 24. 17. 8. -3. -16. INTENSITY ADJUSTMENTS FROM SATELLITE INPUT 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- MEAN ADJUSTMENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES IR STD DEV 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. GOES IR PIXEL COUNT 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL ADJUSTMENT 1. 3. 4. 4. 3. 2. 2. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE (KT) 5. 9. 13. 17. 22. 26. 27. 24. 16. 7. -4. -18. ** 2005 ATLANTIC RAPID INTENSITY INDEX ** ( 25 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) ALPHA 10/23/05 00 UTC 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): Value: 10.0 Range: -20.0 to 25.0 Scaled value: 0.90 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : Value: 10.3 Range: 42.5 to 2.5 Scaled value: 0.81 SST (C) : Value: 29.6 Range: 24.3 to 30.4 Scaled value: 0.86 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : Value: 123.7 Range: 27.1 to 136.4 Scaled value: 0.88 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): Value: 73.8 Range: 57.0 to 88.0 Scaled value: 0.54 % area w/pixels <-30 C: Value: 75.0 Range: 17.0 to 100.0 Scaled value: 0.70 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : Value: 15.3 Range: 37.5 to 8.0 Scaled value: 0.75 Scaled RI index= 5.44 Prob of RI= 51.6% is 4.3 times the sample mean(12.1%)