* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES/OHC INPUT INCLUDED * WILMA 10/23/05 06 UTC TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 85 86 86 85 81 73 60 50 38 29 18 DIS DIS V (KT) LAND 85 86 86 85 81 63 50 40 28 18 DIS DIS DIS SHEAR (KTS) 13 16 23 28 35 41 61 54 74 75 71 66 49 SHEAR DIR 184 166 167 174 178 187 216 225 245 262 262 266 271 SST (C) 28.8 28.8 28.8 28.6 28.3 28.3 27.3 25.3 17.8 13.9 12.6 13.7 18.5 POT. INT. (KT) 154 154 154 151 146 146 133 113 78 72 71 72 80 200 MB T (C) -50.3 -50.4 -49.8 -49.7 -49.7 -47.9 -47.2 -46.7 -46.4 -46.9 -46.8 -46.6 -46.7 TH_E DEV (C) 10 9 9 7 6 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 1 500-300 MB RH 46 51 51 51 53 44 34 23 20 12 20 29 26 MO FLX (M/S/D) 3 0 2 9 12 -13 7 3 22 40 11 13 14 850 MB VORT 96 107 107 127 146 224 267 280 229 188 152 181 258 LAND (KM) 39 129 149 150 201 99 278 401 181 179 121 574 1119 LAT (DEG N) 21.8 22.4 23.0 23.9 24.8 27.9 33.0 38.3 42.9 45.5 45.8 45.9 45.7 LONG(DEG W) 86.8 86.2 85.6 84.5 83.3 79.4 74.4 68.8 63.2 57.7 52.2 45.7 38.4 HEAT CONTENT 77 78 81 70 42 40 15 0 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI STORM HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KTS) 35/ 2 CX,CY: 1/ 2 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB) 642 (MEAN=643) 200 MB DIVERGENCE x10**5 (T=0) 50 (MEAN= 23) T-12 MAXIMUM WIND (KTS) 85 GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 100-300 KM RAD: 9.9 (MEAN=20.0) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 99.0 (MEAN=68.9) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 7. 8. 9. 10. 11. 11. 12. SST POTENTIAL 1. 2. 3. 3. 2. -1. -8. -17. -28. -37. -45. -51. VERTICAL SHEAR -1. -3. -7. -12. -20. -29. -32. -31. -26. -21. -16. -13. PERSISTENCE 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 200 MB TEMP. -1. -2. -3. -4. -6. -10. -14. -18. -22. -25. -29. -33. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. -1. -1. -3. -5. -8. -11. -14. -18. -22. -26. 500-300 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. 850 MB ENV. VORT. 1. 2. 3. 4. 9. 15. 22. 29. 33. 36. 38. 40. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -7. -8. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. ---------------------------------------------------------- SUB-TOTAL CHANGE 0. -1. -3. -7. -15. -27. -36. -47. -56. -66. -75. -83. INTENSITY ADJUSTMENTS FROM SATELLITE INPUT 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- MEAN ADJUSTMENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES IR STD DEV 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES IR PIXEL COUNT 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL ADJUSTMENT 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 2. 1. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE (KT) 1. 1. 0. -4. -12. -25. -35. -47. -56. -67. -76. -85. ** 2005 ATLANTIC RAPID INTENSITY INDEX ** ( 25 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) WILMA 10/23/05 06 UTC 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): Value: 0.0 Range: -20.0 to 25.0 Scaled value: 0.71 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : Value: 23.0 Range: 42.5 to 2.5 Scaled value: 0.49 SST (C) : Value: 28.7 Range: 24.3 to 30.4 Scaled value: 0.71 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : Value: 66.6 Range: 27.1 to 136.4 Scaled value: 0.36 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): Value: 68.6 Range: 57.0 to 88.0 Scaled value: 0.37 % area w/pixels <-30 C: Value: 98.0 Range: 17.0 to 100.0 Scaled value: 0.98 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : Value: 9.9 Range: 37.5 to 8.0 Scaled value: 0.94 Scaled RI index= 4.56 Prob of RI= 20.8% is 1.7 times the sample mean(12.1%)