* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES/OHC INPUT INCLUDED * ALPHA 10/23/05 06 UTC TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 45 49 53 56 59 67 71 72 70 65 57 50 42 V (KT) LAND 45 38 40 43 47 54 59 60 57 53 45 38 30 SHEAR (KTS) 11 11 11 6 1 7 36 41 55 61 68 N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 25 19 42 49 123 261 213 193 202 207 217 9999 9999 SST (C) 29.8 29.7 29.7 29.2 28.8 27.8 27.1 26.3 26.5 25.1 23.8 N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 165 165 165 160 154 139 131 122 124 111 102 N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -52.3 -52.2 -51.8 -51.5 -51.4 -49.6 -48.0 -47.5 -47.8 -47.6 -47.9 N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 13 13 13 12 12 10 2 3 1 1 0 N/A N/A 500-300 MB RH 55 53 52 52 58 56 35 16 19 19 24 N/A N/A MO FLX (M/S/D) -2 -3 -2 0 -1 11 24 -17 29 12 27 N/A N/A 850 MB VORT -32 -43 -63 -88 -70 160 243 210 146 76 111 N/A N/A LAND (KM) 45 -72 38 230 421 715 538 493 551 479 415 N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 17.8 19.0 20.1 22.0 23.8 27.8 31.3 34.1 36.9 39.2 41.2 N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 70.5 71.2 71.9 72.3 72.6 72.9 72.5 70.8 68.4 65.0 61.2 N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 100 9999 90 60 54 22 10 5 7 0 0 9999 9999 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI STORM HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KTS) 305/ 12 CX,CY: -9/ 7 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB) 512 (MEAN=643) 200 MB DIVERGENCE x10**5 (T=0) 3 (MEAN= 23) T-12 MAXIMUM WIND (KTS) 35 GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 100-300 KM RAD: 24.3 (MEAN=20.0) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 70.0 (MEAN=68.9) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 7. 8. 9. 10. 11. 11. 12. SST POTENTIAL 1. 2. 4. 6. 9. 11. 12. 12. 12. 10. 10. 10. VERTICAL SHEAR 0. 1. 2. 4. 7. 8. 9. 9. 11. 13. 11. 7. PERSISTENCE 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. 6. 6. 5. 4. 2. 1. 0. 200 MB TEMP. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -6. -9. -13. -16. -19. -21. -23. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -3. -6. -8. -12. -14. -16. 500-300 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. 850 MB ENV. VORT. -1. -1. -3. -4. -2. 2. 7. 11. 13. 14. 15. 16. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 2. 2. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -7. -8. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. ---------------------------------------------------------- SUB-TOTAL CHANGE 4. 7. 10. 14. 22. 27. 28. 26. 22. 14. 7. -1. INTENSITY ADJUSTMENTS FROM SATELLITE INPUT 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- MEAN ADJUSTMENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES IR STD DEV 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES IR PIXEL COUNT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL ADJUSTMENT 0. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE (KT) 4. 8. 11. 14. 22. 26. 27. 25. 20. 12. 5. -3. ** 2005 ATLANTIC RAPID INTENSITY INDEX ** ( 25 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) ALPHA 10/23/05 06 UTC 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): Value: 10.0 Range: -20.0 to 25.0 Scaled value: 0.90 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : Value: 8.0 Range: 42.5 to 2.5 Scaled value: 0.86 SST (C) : Value: 29.4 Range: 24.3 to 30.4 Scaled value: 0.84 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : Value: 116.8 Range: 27.1 to 136.4 Scaled value: 0.82 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): Value: 75.4 Range: 57.0 to 88.0 Scaled value: 0.59 % area w/pixels <-30 C: Value: 62.0 Range: 17.0 to 100.0 Scaled value: 0.54 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : Value: 24.3 Range: 37.5 to 8.0 Scaled value: 0.45 Scaled RI index= 5.01 Prob of RI= 36.9% is 3.1 times the sample mean(12.1%)