* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES/OHC INPUT INCLUDED * WILMA 10/23/05 12 UTC TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 85 86 86 85 82 74 61 50 37 29 21 DIS DIS V (KT) LAND 85 86 86 85 72 64 52 40 29 27 23 DIS DIS SHEAR (KTS) 13 15 18 27 31 49 70 82 88 81 69 66 45 SHEAR DIR 187 190 187 190 184 191 222 226 235 235 243 242 233 SST (C) 28.8 28.8 28.6 28.3 28.3 28.1 26.0 19.9 14.2 12.8 11.1 8.7 10.9 POT. INT. (KT) 154 154 151 146 146 143 119 84 73 71 70 69 70 200 MB T (C) -50.3 -49.3 -49.9 -49.5 -49.2 -48.3 -47.0 -46.6 -46.2 -45.4 -44.1 -43.7 -43.9 TH_E DEV (C) 10 9 7 6 3 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 500-300 MB RH 49 47 53 52 53 44 39 30 29 33 33 41 54 MO FLX (M/S/D) 11 20 6 24 44 4 15 39 38 71 -34 10 6 850 MB VORT 96 105 117 146 188 222 282 293 237 231 261 268 304 LAND (KM) 136 128 148 167 0 379 369 250 -33 26 -33 88 533 LAT (DEG N) 22.4 23.2 23.9 24.9 25.9 29.6 35.7 40.9 44.8 47.1 47.9 48.6 49.5 LONG(DEG W) 86.1 85.3 84.4 83.0 81.5 76.9 71.8 67.6 64.2 60.7 56.8 51.8 45.8 HEAT CONTENT 79 80 70 43 33 29 0 0 9999 0 9999 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI STORM HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KTS) 45/ 7 CX,CY: 5/ 5 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB) 639 (MEAN=643) 200 MB DIVERGENCE x10**5 (T=0) 55 (MEAN= 23) T-12 MAXIMUM WIND (KTS) 85 GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 100-300 KM RAD: 13.0 (MEAN=20.0) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 99.0 (MEAN=68.9) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 7. 8. 9. 10. 11. 11. 12. SST POTENTIAL 1. 2. 3. 4. 3. -1. -9. -20. -31. -40. -48. -54. VERTICAL SHEAR -1. -3. -6. -9. -18. -27. -30. -29. -23. -16. -10. -6. PERSISTENCE 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 200 MB TEMP. -1. -2. -3. -4. -7. -11. -15. -19. -23. -28. -34. -39. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. -1. -2. -3. -6. -9. -12. -16. -20. -24. -27. 500-300 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. 850 MB ENV. VORT. 1. 2. 3. 5. 10. 16. 24. 30. 36. 41. 45. 48. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -7. -8. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. ---------------------------------------------------------- SUB-TOTAL CHANGE 0. 0. -2. -4. -13. -25. -36. -48. -55. -63. -70. -80. INTENSITY ADJUSTMENTS FROM SATELLITE INPUT 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- MEAN ADJUSTMENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES IR STD DEV 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES IR PIXEL COUNT 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL ADJUSTMENT 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. -2. -1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE (KT) 1. 1. 0. -3. -11. -24. -35. -48. -56. -64. -72. -81. ** 2005 ATLANTIC RAPID INTENSITY INDEX ** ( 25 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) WILMA 10/23/05 12 UTC 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): Value: 0.0 Range: -20.0 to 25.0 Scaled value: 0.71 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : Value: 20.9 Range: 42.5 to 2.5 Scaled value: 0.54 SST (C) : Value: 28.6 Range: 24.3 to 30.4 Scaled value: 0.70 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : Value: 65.1 Range: 27.1 to 136.4 Scaled value: 0.35 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): Value: 69.0 Range: 57.0 to 88.0 Scaled value: 0.39 % area w/pixels <-30 C: Value: 93.0 Range: 17.0 to 100.0 Scaled value: 0.92 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : Value: 13.0 Range: 37.5 to 8.0 Scaled value: 0.83 Scaled RI index= 4.43 Prob of RI= 17.6% is 1.5 times the sample mean(12.1%)