* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES/OHC INPUT INCLUDED * ALPHA 10/23/05 12 UTC TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 35 34 35 36 39 46 52 56 58 62 60 56 47 V (KT) LAND 35 33 37 39 42 49 54 59 61 65 63 58 50 SHEAR (KTS) 6 10 8 3 4 28 55 66 67 68 70 N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 34 23 75 154 283 195 215 205 213 219 239 9999 9999 SST (C) 29.8 29.8 29.5 28.9 28.6 27.5 26.7 26.3 22.5 20.2 15.1 N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 165 165 165 155 151 135 126 122 94 85 74 N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -52.0 -51.4 -51.2 -51.0 -50.3 -48.9 -47.4 -46.9 -47.2 -46.8 -45.8 N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 12 13 12 11 10 2 1 0 0 0 0 N/A N/A 500-300 MB RH 57 51 58 62 67 60 31 15 15 20 22 N/A N/A MO FLX (M/S/D) 0 0 0 -1 4 15 -10 33 18 2 0 N/A N/A 850 MB VORT -24 -44 -48 1 123 241 253 301 253 237 241 N/A N/A LAND (KM) -10 -11 98 275 474 582 339 469 370 259 227 N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 18.6 19.8 21.0 23.1 25.1 30.0 33.9 37.1 40.2 42.7 44.8 N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 72.2 73.1 73.9 74.1 74.3 74.0 72.7 69.9 66.1 61.2 55.9 N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 102 92 56 44 48 18 3 1 0 0 0 9999 9999 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI STORM HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KTS) 300/ 14 CX,CY: -11/ 7 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB) 487 (MEAN=643) 200 MB DIVERGENCE x10**5 (T=0) -14 (MEAN= 23) T-12 MAXIMUM WIND (KTS) 45 GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 100-300 KM RAD: 26.5 (MEAN=20.0) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 90.0 (MEAN=68.9) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 7. 8. 9. 10. 11. 11. 12. SST POTENTIAL 1. 1. 2. 4. 7. 9. 11. 11. 10. 7. 9. 10. VERTICAL SHEAR 1. 2. 4. 5. 9. 11. 13. 15. 20. 24. 19. 13. PERSISTENCE -3. -5. -7. -8. -9. -10. -9. -9. -6. -4. -2. -1. 200 MB TEMP. 0. -1. -1. -2. -5. -8. -12. -16. -19. -23. -26. -28. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -3. -5. -8. -12. -15. -18. -20. 500-300 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. 850 MB ENV. VORT. -1. -1. -2. -1. 3. 8. 15. 22. 28. 32. 35. 36. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 4. 3. 2. 2. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -7. -8. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -1. ---------------------------------------------------------- SUB-TOTAL CHANGE -2. -2. -1. 2. 10. 15. 20. 23. 28. 27. 22. 14. INTENSITY ADJUSTMENTS FROM SATELLITE INPUT 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- MEAN ADJUSTMENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES IR STD DEV 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES IR PIXEL COUNT 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL ADJUSTMENT 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE (KT) -1. 0. 1. 4. 11. 17. 21. 23. 27. 25. 21. 12. ** 2005 ATLANTIC RAPID INTENSITY INDEX ** ( 25 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) ALPHA 10/23/05 12 UTC 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): Value: -10.0 Range: -20.0 to 25.0 Scaled value: 0.35 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : Value: 6.3 Range: 42.5 to 2.5 Scaled value: 0.91 SST (C) : Value: 29.3 Range: 24.3 to 30.4 Scaled value: 0.82 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : Value: 125.2 Range: 27.1 to 136.4 Scaled value: 0.90 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): Value: 76.6 Range: 57.0 to 88.0 Scaled value: 0.63 % area w/pixels <-30 C: Value: 83.0 Range: 17.0 to 100.0 Scaled value: 0.80 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : Value: 26.5 Range: 37.5 to 8.0 Scaled value: 0.37 Scaled RI index= 4.78 Prob of RI= 28.6% is 2.4 times the sample mean(12.1%)