* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES/OHC INPUT INCLUDED * WILMA 10/23/05 18 UTC TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 85 84 83 81 77 68 58 46 36 30 22 DIS DIS V (KT) LAND 85 84 83 70 67 58 47 36 32 27 29 DIS DIS SHEAR (KTS) 20 24 29 32 38 51 64 86 80 70 63 53 44 SHEAR DIR 195 194 194 189 182 207 214 231 232 240 248 253 249 SST (C) 28.8 28.6 28.4 28.3 28.3 27.5 25.2 14.6 13.8 10.6 8.6 10.0 13.3 POT. INT. (KT) 154 151 148 146 146 135 112 73 72 70 69 69 72 200 MB T (C) -49.7 -50.2 -50.3 -49.9 -48.8 -48.5 -46.9 -46.6 -45.8 -44.3 -44.5 -44.8 -45.5 TH_E DEV (C) 9 8 7 3 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 500-300 MB RH 45 53 50 51 47 30 20 26 31 39 39 51 54 MO FLX (M/S/D) 8 5 -1 26 -4 -10 16 57 39 3 9 7 -4 850 MB VORT 93 116 136 204 230 257 324 274 245 245 223 150 147 LAND (KM) 136 140 186 -37 84 343 359 37 0 -70 66 434 790 LAT (DEG N) 23.1 23.9 24.7 26.1 27.5 32.1 38.2 43.2 46.5 48.3 48.7 49.5 50.7 LONG(DEG W) 85.4 84.2 83.0 81.2 79.4 74.7 69.9 65.7 62.0 57.5 52.1 47.2 42.5 HEAT CONTENT 80 70 49 9999 40 17 0 0 0 9999 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI STORM HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KTS) 45/ 10 CX,CY: 7/ 7 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB) 606 (MEAN=643) 200 MB DIVERGENCE x10**5 (T=0) 70 (MEAN= 23) T-12 MAXIMUM WIND (KTS) 85 GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 100-300 KM RAD: 15.4 (MEAN=20.0) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 97.0 (MEAN=68.9) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 7. 8. 9. 10. 11. 11. 12. SST POTENTIAL 1. 2. 3. 4. 3. -2. -12. -23. -34. -43. -51. -56. VERTICAL SHEAR -2. -6. -10. -15. -25. -31. -33. -29. -21. -14. -7. -4. PERSISTENCE 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 200 MB TEMP. -1. -2. -3. -4. -7. -11. -15. -19. -24. -29. -34. -38. THETA_E EXCESS 0. -1. -1. -2. -4. -7. -9. -13. -16. -20. -25. -28. 500-300 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. 850 MB ENV. VORT. 1. 2. 4. 6. 12. 19. 28. 34. 40. 44. 46. 46. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -5. -5. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -7. -8. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. ---------------------------------------------------------- SUB-TOTAL CHANGE -1. -2. -5. -8. -17. -27. -39. -48. -54. -61. -70. -82. INTENSITY ADJUSTMENTS FROM SATELLITE INPUT 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- MEAN ADJUSTMENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES IR STD DEV 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES IR PIXEL COUNT 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL ADJUSTMENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE (KT) -1. -2. -4. -8. -17. -27. -39. -49. -55. -63. -72. -83. ** 2005 ATLANTIC RAPID INTENSITY INDEX ** ( 25 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) WILMA 10/23/05 18 UTC 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): Value: 0.0 Range: -20.0 to 25.0 Scaled value: 0.71 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : Value: 28.7 Range: 42.5 to 2.5 Scaled value: 0.35 SST (C) : Value: 28.5 Range: 24.3 to 30.4 Scaled value: 0.69 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : Value: 63.9 Range: 27.1 to 136.4 Scaled value: 0.34 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): Value: 67.6 Range: 57.0 to 88.0 Scaled value: 0.34 % area w/pixels <-30 C: Value: 91.0 Range: 17.0 to 100.0 Scaled value: 0.89 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : Value: 15.4 Range: 37.5 to 8.0 Scaled value: 0.75 Scaled RI index= 4.06 Prob of RI= 12.4% is 1.0 times the sample mean(12.1%)