* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES/OHC INPUT INCLUDED * ALPHA 10/23/05 18 UTC TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 25 22 21 22 24 30 38 45 48 56 59 55 47 V (KT) LAND 25 24 23 25 26 33 41 47 50 59 61 58 50 SHEAR (KTS) 5 5 4 6 4 36 58 69 67 66 63 N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 31 26 70 347 49 208 201 209 212 228 245 9999 9999 SST (C) 29.8 29.5 29.2 28.7 28.3 27.1 26.2 24.5 18.9 15.3 11.1 N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 165 165 160 152 146 131 121 106 81 74 70 N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -52.0 -51.6 -51.5 -51.0 -50.1 -49.2 -47.2 -47.5 -46.7 -45.8 -45.2 N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 14 13 12 11 10 2 1 0 0 0 0 N/A N/A 500-300 MB RH 53 55 60 60 59 33 16 19 21 29 33 N/A N/A MO FLX (M/S/D) 0 0 0 2 8 -5 -4 51 -24 5 2 N/A N/A 850 MB VORT -45 -52 0 101 143 240 281 246 245 289 240 N/A N/A LAND (KM) -11 111 192 393 602 502 424 367 205 190 38 N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 19.8 20.9 22.0 24.1 26.1 31.5 35.6 39.0 42.2 44.7 47.0 N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 72.7 73.2 73.7 73.7 73.6 72.8 71.2 67.9 63.7 58.3 52.5 N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 95 65 48 47 42 10 1 0 0 0 0 9999 9999 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI STORM HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KTS) 320/ 13 CX,CY: -7/ 10 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB) 540 (MEAN=643) 200 MB DIVERGENCE x10**5 (T=0) 6 (MEAN= 23) T-12 MAXIMUM WIND (KTS) 45 GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 100-300 KM RAD: 14.0 (MEAN=20.0) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 96.0 (MEAN=68.9) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 7. 8. 9. 10. 11. 11. 12. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 1. 2. 4. 6. 9. 9. 8. 6. 9. 11. VERTICAL SHEAR 1. 3. 5. 7. 11. 16. 21. 25. 32. 35. 30. 23. PERSISTENCE -6. -10. -13. -16. -19. -20. -19. -18. -13. -7. -3. -1. 200 MB TEMP. 0. -1. -1. -2. -4. -8. -11. -15. -19. -24. -27. -29. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -3. -6. -9. -12. -15. -18. -21. 500-300 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. 850 MB ENV. VORT. -1. -1. -1. 0. 5. 11. 17. 24. 30. 35. 38. 39. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 2. 1. 1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -7. -8. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. ---------------------------------------------------------- SUB-TOTAL CHANGE -5. -7. -7. -5. 1. 9. 17. 22. 31. 35. 32. 24. INTENSITY ADJUSTMENTS FROM SATELLITE INPUT 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- MEAN ADJUSTMENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES IR STD DEV 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 3. 3. 2. 1. 1. 0. -1. GOES IR PIXEL COUNT 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL ADJUSTMENT 1. 3. 4. 4. 4. 4. 3. 1. 0. -1. -2. -2. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE (KT) -3. -4. -3. -1. 5. 13. 20. 23. 31. 34. 30. 22. ** 2005 ATLANTIC RAPID INTENSITY INDEX ** ( 25 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) ALPHA 10/23/05 18 UTC 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): Value: -20.0 Range: -20.0 to 25.0 Scaled value: 0.00 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : Value: 5.1 Range: 42.5 to 2.5 Scaled value: 0.94 SST (C) : Value: 29.1 Range: 24.3 to 30.4 Scaled value: 0.79 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : Value: 132.7 Range: 27.1 to 136.4 Scaled value: 0.97 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): Value: 76.4 Range: 57.0 to 88.0 Scaled value: 0.63 % area w/pixels <-30 C: Value: 83.0 Range: 17.0 to 100.0 Scaled value: 0.80 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : Value: 14.0 Range: 37.5 to 8.0 Scaled value: 0.80 Scaled RI index= 4.91 Prob of RI= 33.6% is 2.8 times the sample mean(12.1%)