* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES/OHC INPUT INCLUDED * WILMA 10/24/05 00 UTC TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 95 95 92 88 81 69 55 40 28 20 DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LAND 95 95 77 76 70 57 43 29 27 27 DIS DIS DIS SHEAR (KTS) 25 32 33 40 49 55 75 86 76 67 68 59 56 SHEAR DIR 202 202 192 186 197 213 233 242 239 249 257 260 262 SST (C) 28.6 28.3 28.3 28.3 28.1 26.2 19.2 15.0 12.3 10.1 8.5 12.6 14.1 POT. INT. (KT) 151 146 146 146 143 121 82 74 71 69 69 71 73 200 MB T (C) -50.0 -50.4 -50.1 -48.8 -48.8 -48.0 -47.1 -46.4 -45.3 -45.6 -46.0 -46.1 -47.2 TH_E DEV (C) 9 6 4 2 1 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 500-300 MB RH 49 48 48 41 36 26 24 31 44 47 52 56 61 MO FLX (M/S/D) 2 -8 2 3 1 16 25 74 40 -17 -1 5 3 850 MB VORT 106 118 187 235 245 324 309 244 254 224 146 80 33 LAND (KM) 148 138 -60 153 398 426 222 -33 53 -94 301 670 934 LAT (DEG N) 23.9 25.0 26.1 27.9 29.6 35.3 41.5 45.5 47.3 48.4 49.5 50.0 50.1 LONG(DEG W) 84.4 82.7 80.9 78.8 76.7 71.2 65.4 62.1 60.1 56.0 49.1 44.0 40.3 HEAT CONTENT 69 44 9999 40 27 2 0 9999 0 9999 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI STORM HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KTS) 45/ 12 CX,CY: 8/ 8 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB) 663 (MEAN=643) 200 MB DIVERGENCE x10**5 (T=0) 45 (MEAN= 23) T-12 MAXIMUM WIND (KTS) 85 GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 100-300 KM RAD: 8.9 (MEAN=20.0) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 99.0 (MEAN=68.9) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 7. 8. 9. 10. 11. 11. 12. SST POTENTIAL 1. 2. 2. 3. 0. -9. -22. -35. -48. -58. -67. -72. VERTICAL SHEAR -3. -9. -16. -23. -35. -41. -41. -37. -28. -20. -11. -7. PERSISTENCE 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 200 MB TEMP. -1. -2. -3. -4. -7. -11. -15. -20. -24. -28. -32. -36. THETA_E EXCESS 0. -1. -2. -3. -5. -7. -10. -14. -17. -21. -25. -29. 500-300 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. 850 MB ENV. VORT. 1. 2. 5. 7. 14. 22. 30. 36. 42. 44. 44. 42. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -4. -5. -6. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -7. -8. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. ---------------------------------------------------------- SUB-TOTAL CHANGE -1. -4. -9. -16. -29. -42. -56. -68. -75. -83. -93.-105. INTENSITY ADJUSTMENTS FROM SATELLITE INPUT 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- MEAN ADJUSTMENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES IR STD DEV 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES IR PIXEL COUNT 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL ADJUSTMENT 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE (KT) 0. -3. -7. -14. -26. -40. -55. -67. -75. -85. -95.-106. ** 2005 ATLANTIC RAPID INTENSITY INDEX ** ( 25 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) WILMA 10/24/05 00 UTC 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): Value: 10.0 Range: -20.0 to 25.0 Scaled value: 0.90 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : Value: 35.9 Range: 42.5 to 2.5 Scaled value: 0.16 SST (C) : Value: 28.3 Range: 24.3 to 30.4 Scaled value: 0.66 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : Value: 51.5 Range: 27.1 to 136.4 Scaled value: 0.22 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): Value: 63.4 Range: 57.0 to 88.0 Scaled value: 0.21 % area w/pixels <-30 C: Value: 99.0 Range: 17.0 to 100.0 Scaled value: 0.99 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : Value: 8.9 Range: 37.5 to 8.0 Scaled value: 0.97 Scaled RI index= 4.11 Prob of RI= 13.1% is 1.1 times the sample mean(12.1%)