* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES/OHC INPUT INCLUDED * ALPHA 10/24/05 00 UTC TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 30 32 35 39 43 52 61 67 71 74 72 65 54 V (KT) LAND 30 32 35 39 43 52 61 67 71 74 72 65 54 SHEAR (KTS) 2 3 6 5 11 26 46 61 76 75 64 N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 7 282 306 352 190 216 215 237 253 265 267 9999 9999 SST (C) 29.3 28.9 28.7 28.2 27.7 26.1 25.5 21.5 13.7 9.9 13.8 N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 162 155 152 145 138 120 114 90 72 69 72 N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -51.6 -51.4 -51.0 -50.1 -49.9 -49.0 -47.9 -48.0 -46.5 -45.4 -44.7 N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 14 13 12 10 7 3 2 1 0 0 0 N/A N/A 500-300 MB RH 56 54 56 51 50 31 15 14 28 43 44 N/A N/A MO FLX (M/S/D) 0 0 -3 0 2 9 9 27 30 36 12 N/A N/A 850 MB VORT -41 -2 100 132 191 288 339 296 238 217 131 N/A N/A LAND (KM) 188 294 395 645 784 639 522 328 138 419 979 N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 21.6 22.9 24.1 26.3 28.5 34.5 38.8 42.3 45.5 48.1 50.3 N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 72.9 73.3 73.7 73.0 72.3 69.0 65.5 60.3 54.2 47.2 39.7 N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 56 44 47 33 16 1 0 0 0 0 0 9999 9999 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI STORM HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KTS) 350/ 15 CX,CY: -2/ 15 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB) 590 (MEAN=643) 200 MB DIVERGENCE x10**5 (T=0) 31 (MEAN= 23) T-12 MAXIMUM WIND (KTS) 30 GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 100-300 KM RAD: 14.4 (MEAN=20.0) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 63.0 (MEAN=68.9) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 7. 8. 9. 10. 11. 11. 12. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 1. 2. 4. 5. 5. 3. 1. -1. 1. 2. VERTICAL SHEAR 1. 3. 5. 7. 11. 17. 23. 29. 39. 44. 40. 33. PERSISTENCE 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 200 MB TEMP. 0. -1. -2. -3. -5. -8. -12. -15. -20. -24. -27. -30. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -3. -5. -9. -12. -15. -18. -21. 500-300 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. 850 MB ENV. VORT. 0. 0. 1. 2. 8. 15. 23. 30. 35. 37. 40. 41. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -7. -8. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- SUB-TOTAL CHANGE 1. 4. 7. 11. 20. 29. 37. 41. 45. 43. 37. 26. INTENSITY ADJUSTMENTS FROM SATELLITE INPUT 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- MEAN ADJUSTMENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES IR STD DEV 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 2. 2. 1. 0. 0. 0. GOES IR PIXEL COUNT 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL ADJUSTMENT 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE (KT) 2. 5. 9. 13. 22. 31. 37. 41. 44. 42. 35. 24. ** 2005 ATLANTIC RAPID INTENSITY INDEX ** ( 25 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) ALPHA 10/24/05 00 UTC 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): Value: 0.0 Range: -20.0 to 25.0 Scaled value: 0.71 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : Value: 5.7 Range: 42.5 to 2.5 Scaled value: 0.92 SST (C) : Value: 28.6 Range: 24.3 to 30.4 Scaled value: 0.70 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : Value: 120.5 Range: 27.1 to 136.4 Scaled value: 0.85 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): Value: 73.6 Range: 57.0 to 88.0 Scaled value: 0.54 % area w/pixels <-30 C: Value: 42.0 Range: 17.0 to 100.0 Scaled value: 0.30 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : Value: 14.4 Range: 37.5 to 8.0 Scaled value: 0.78 Scaled RI index= 4.80 Prob of RI= 29.4% is 2.4 times the sample mean(12.1%)