* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES/OHC INPUT INCLUDED * WILMA 10/24/05 06 UTC TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 100 99 95 89 83 65 44 28 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LAND 100 82 80 74 67 50 29 22 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS SHEAR (KTS) 31 34 42 46 48 71 100 97 79 72 69 64 51 SHEAR DIR 210 197 184 192 216 240 246 244 246 253 258 252 243 SST (C) 28.3 28.3 28.3 27.9 27.0 22.7 14.6 12.0 10.8 8.7 11.5 13.9 14.0 POT. INT. (KT) 146 146 146 141 129 95 73 71 70 69 70 72 72 200 MB T (C) -50.6 -49.9 -49.0 -49.3 -49.1 -48.1 -47.2 -46.3 -45.0 -45.4 -46.0 -46.3 -46.4 TH_E DEV (C) 6 3 1 0 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 500-300 MB RH 48 46 47 44 40 47 43 45 48 48 57 57 65 MO FLX (M/S/D) 13 26 37 45 5 13 69 18 -7 -7 6 5 11 850 MB VORT 135 184 234 265 288 263 206 185 188 142 73 16 1 LAND (KM) 172 -72 127 417 347 349 -57 99 -7 24 577 965 1212 LAT (DEG N) 25.0 26.5 27.9 30.5 33.1 40.0 45.2 47.7 48.2 48.8 50.2 50.3 49.7 LONG(DEG W) 83.1 81.1 79.1 76.2 73.3 66.9 63.2 61.1 58.7 53.6 45.4 39.9 36.4 HEAT CONTENT 42 9999 39 23 9 0 9999 0 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI STORM HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KTS) 45/ 17 CX,CY: 12/ 12 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB) 642 (MEAN=643) 200 MB DIVERGENCE x10**5 (T=0) 77 (MEAN= 23) T-12 MAXIMUM WIND (KTS) 90 GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 100-300 KM RAD: 9.0 (MEAN=20.0) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 99.0 (MEAN=68.9) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 7. 8. 9. 10. 11. 11. 12. SST POTENTIAL 0. 2. 2. 2. -4. -17. -31. -45. -59. -70. -78. -83. VERTICAL SHEAR -4. -11. -20. -27. -40. -48. -47. -41. -30. -21. -11. -6. PERSISTENCE 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 200 MB TEMP. -1. -2. -3. -4. -7. -11. -15. -20. -25. -29. -33. -36. THETA_E EXCESS 0. -1. -3. -3. -6. -8. -11. -15. -18. -23. -27. -31. 500-300 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 850 MB ENV. VORT. 1. 3. 6. 9. 15. 21. 27. 32. 36. 37. 35. 32. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -5. -6. -7. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -7. -8. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 2. ---------------------------------------------------------- SUB-TOTAL CHANGE -1. -6. -12. -19. -37. -58. -73. -85. -94.-103.-112.-125. INTENSITY ADJUSTMENTS FROM SATELLITE INPUT 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- MEAN ADJUSTMENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES IR STD DEV 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES IR PIXEL COUNT 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL ADJUSTMENT 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE (KT) -1. -5. -11. -17. -35. -56. -72. -85. -94.-104.-114.-126. ** 2005 ATLANTIC RAPID INTENSITY INDEX ** ( 25 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) WILMA 10/24/05 06 UTC 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): Value: 10.0 Range: -20.0 to 25.0 Scaled value: 0.90 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : Value: 40.2 Range: 42.5 to 2.5 Scaled value: 0.06 SST (C) : Value: 28.0 Range: 24.3 to 30.4 Scaled value: 0.60 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : Value: 41.7 Range: 27.1 to 136.4 Scaled value: 0.13 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): Value: 65.6 Range: 57.0 to 88.0 Scaled value: 0.28 % area w/pixels <-30 C: Value: 98.0 Range: 17.0 to 100.0 Scaled value: 0.98 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : Value: 9.0 Range: 37.5 to 8.0 Scaled value: 0.97 Scaled RI index= 3.91 Prob of RI= 10.7% is 0.9 times the sample mean(12.1%)