* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES/OHC INPUT INCLUDED * ALPHA 10/24/05 06 UTC TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 30 31 34 38 42 49 55 62 64 66 66 61 52 V (KT) LAND 30 31 34 38 42 49 55 62 64 66 66 61 52 SHEAR (KTS) 13 20 17 6 14 20 35 58 73 75 N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 280 304 319 285 241 225 224 234 246 257 9999 9999 9999 SST (C) 28.8 28.4 27.9 27.4 26.7 26.0 25.7 24.0 17.3 12.3 N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 154 148 141 134 126 119 116 103 77 71 N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -51.6 -51.2 -50.4 -50.2 -50.0 -49.0 -49.1 -48.9 -47.1 -45.9 N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 13 12 11 8 6 4 2 1 0 0 N/A N/A N/A 500-300 MB RH 58 57 60 63 53 25 14 15 24 34 N/A N/A N/A MO FLX (M/S/D) 1 6 7 12 10 19 7 15 8 15 N/A N/A N/A 850 MB VORT -10 71 148 199 205 273 241 244 234 224 N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) 371 594 811 793 724 766 601 491 355 400 N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 23.5 25.5 27.5 29.7 31.8 35.4 38.4 41.2 43.5 45.5 N/A N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 73.0 72.5 71.9 70.7 69.4 66.8 63.1 58.6 53.6 48.2 N/A N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 47 32 22 13 9 0 0 0 0 0 9999 9999 9999 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI STORM HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KTS) 355/ 19 CX,CY: -1/ 19 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB) 733 (MEAN=643) 200 MB DIVERGENCE x10**5 (T=0) 36 (MEAN= 23) T-12 MAXIMUM WIND (KTS) 30 GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 100-300 KM RAD: 17.9 (MEAN=20.0) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 44.0 (MEAN=68.9) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 7. 8. 9. 10. 11. 11. 12. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 4. 3. 1. 2. 4. 6. VERTICAL SHEAR 1. 2. 4. 6. 11. 15. 20. 25. 33. 33. 28. 22. PERSISTENCE 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 200 MB TEMP. 0. -1. -2. -3. -5. -8. -10. -14. -18. -20. -22. -24. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -4. -6. -9. -12. -15. -17. -20. 500-300 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. 850 MB ENV. VORT. 0. 1. 3. 4. 10. 17. 23. 29. 35. 38. 41. 42. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -2. -2. -2. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -7. -8. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. ---------------------------------------------------------- SUB-TOTAL CHANGE 1. 4. 8. 11. 19. 26. 32. 35. 37. 37. 33. 24. INTENSITY ADJUSTMENTS FROM SATELLITE INPUT 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- MEAN ADJUSTMENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES IR STD DEV 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 2. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. GOES IR PIXEL COUNT 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL ADJUSTMENT 0. 0. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE (KT) 1. 4. 8. 12. 19. 25. 32. 34. 36. 36. 31. 22. ** 2005 ATLANTIC RAPID INTENSITY INDEX ** ( 25 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) ALPHA 10/24/05 06 UTC 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): Value: 0.0 Range: -20.0 to 25.0 Scaled value: 0.71 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : Value: 14.1 Range: 42.5 to 2.5 Scaled value: 0.71 SST (C) : Value: 27.8 Range: 24.3 to 30.4 Scaled value: 0.58 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : Value: 110.5 Range: 27.1 to 136.4 Scaled value: 0.76 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): Value: 75.8 Range: 57.0 to 88.0 Scaled value: 0.61 % area w/pixels <-30 C: Value: 29.0 Range: 17.0 to 100.0 Scaled value: 0.14 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : Value: 17.9 Range: 37.5 to 8.0 Scaled value: 0.66 Scaled RI index= 4.18 Prob of RI= 13.9% is 1.1 times the sample mean(12.1%)