* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES AND/OR OHC INPUT MISSING * WILMA 10/24/05 12 UTC TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 95 93 89 83 77 62 42 26 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LAND 95 95 91 85 80 64 44 31 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS SHEAR (KTS) 28 34 42 49 52 74 100 98 80 73 68 58 49 SHEAR DIR 203 196 191 216 235 245 259 261 259 258 249 234 220 SST (C) 28.3 28.3 27.9 26.9 26.3 21.3 13.7 10.6 10.0 14.6 15.5 16.3 16.9 POT. INT. (KT) 146 146 141 128 122 89 72 70 69 73 74 76 77 200 MB T (C) -49.8 -48.6 -49.3 -49.1 -49.0 -47.7 -47.6 -46.5 -45.2 -45.0 -45.2 -46.1 -47.8 TH_E DEV (C) 4 2 1 1 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 1 1 500-300 MB RH 53 50 47 38 39 36 36 45 51 49 60 64 58 MO FLX (M/S/D) 12 26 24 1 6 -2 24 75 -2 -7 3 14 -3 850 MB VORT 186 235 252 270 272 218 143 148 173 145 162 212 262 LAND (KM) -59 205 483 407 573 303 156 38 316 718 1258 1502 1271 LAT (DEG N) 26.2 28.2 30.1 33.0 35.9 41.7 45.6 47.3 47.4 47.6 48.3 48.2 47.7 LONG(DEG W) 81.0 78.4 75.7 72.6 69.4 62.7 56.7 52.4 48.6 43.2 35.9 30.5 26.7 HEAT CONTENT 9999 40 18 9 3 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI STORM HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KTS) 50/ 21 CX,CY: 16/ 13 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB) 649 (MEAN=643) 200 MB DIVERGENCE x10**5 (T=0) 92 (MEAN= 23) T-12 MAXIMUM WIND (KTS) 95 GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 100-300 KM RAD: -99.0 (MEAN=20.0) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: -99.0 (MEAN=68.9) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 7. 8. 9. 10. 11. 11. 12. SST POTENTIAL 1. 2. 2. 1. -5. -17. -31. -44. -56. -65. -73. -77. VERTICAL SHEAR -3. -9. -17. -23. -32. -39. -38. -32. -22. -14. -6. -3. PERSISTENCE 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 200 MB TEMP. -1. -2. -3. -5. -8. -11. -15. -20. -25. -29. -34. -37. THETA_E EXCESS -1. -2. -3. -4. -6. -9. -11. -15. -19. -23. -27. -30. 500-300 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 850 MB ENV. VORT. 2. 4. 7. 10. 16. 21. 25. 29. 33. 35. 38. 40. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -4. -6. -8. -8. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -7. -8. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 2. 3. 4. 3. ---------------------------------------------------------- SUB-TOTAL CHANGE -2. -6. -12. -18. -33. -53. -69. -81. -88. -96.-102.-109. INTENSITY ADJUSTMENTS FROM SATELLITE INPUT 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- MEAN ADJUSTMENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES IR STD DEV 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES IR PIXEL COUNT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL ADJUSTMENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE (KT) -2. -6. -12. -18. -33. -53. -69. -81. -88. -96.-102.-109. ** 2005 ATLANTIC RAPID INTENSITY INDEX ** ( 25 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) WILMA 10/24/05 12 UTC 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): Value: 0.0 Range: -20.0 to 25.0 Scaled value: 0.71 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : Value: 41.0 Range: 42.5 to 2.5 Scaled value: 0.04 SST (C) : Value: 27.5 Range: 24.3 to 30.4 Scaled value: 0.53 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : Value: 41.7 Range: 27.1 to 136.4 Scaled value: 0.13 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): Value: 66.4 Range: 57.0 to 88.0 Scaled value: 0.30 % area w/pixels <-30 C: Value: 95.0 Range: 17.0 to 100.0 Scaled value: 0.94 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : Value: 10.0 Range: 37.5 to 8.0 Scaled value: 0.93 Scaled RI index= 3.58 Prob of RI= 6.7% is 0.6 times the sample mean(12.1%)