* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES/OHC INPUT INCLUDED * ALPHA 10/24/05 12 UTC TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 30 32 35 39 44 54 61 65 64 62 60 50 32 V (KT) LAND 30 32 35 39 44 54 61 61 60 59 57 46 29 SHEAR (KTS) 20 17 15 38 54 80 88 98 75 62 N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 313 311 238 236 244 236 251 261 263 261 9999 9999 9999 SST (C) 28.5 27.8 27.2 26.2 26.5 19.9 15.4 10.3 12.1 13.1 N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 149 139 132 121 124 84 74 70 71 72 N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -51.0 -49.6 -49.8 -49.9 -49.3 -47.2 -47.5 -46.5 -44.7 -44.4 N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 13 11 6 2 0 0 0 0 0 0 N/A N/A N/A 500-300 MB RH 58 59 69 56 45 35 28 45 53 53 N/A N/A N/A MO FLX (M/S/D) 4 0 18 23 10 14 25 69 20 -4 N/A N/A N/A 850 MB VORT 62 146 207 227 242 253 205 143 103 101 N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) 548 815 657 596 561 234 155 34 626 1243 N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 25.1 28.0 30.9 33.9 36.9 41.5 44.7 47.5 49.4 50.5 N/A N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 72.6 71.9 71.2 69.7 68.2 64.6 59.1 52.4 44.5 36.0 N/A N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 36 21 9 3 8 0 0 0 0 0 9999 9999 9999 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI STORM HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KTS) 5/ 17 CX,CY: 1/ 17 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB) 736 (MEAN=643) 200 MB DIVERGENCE x10**5 (T=0) 80 (MEAN= 23) T-12 MAXIMUM WIND (KTS) 30 GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 100-300 KM RAD: 14.7 (MEAN=20.0) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 26.0 (MEAN=68.9) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 7. 8. 9. 10. 11. 11. 12. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 0. 0. -1. -4. -7. -9. -12. -11. -10. -8. VERTICAL SHEAR 1. 3. 5. 9. 20. 31. 41. 48. 57. 56. 49. 37. PERSISTENCE 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 200 MB TEMP. -1. -2. -3. -4. -7. -11. -15. -20. -25. -28. -31. -34. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. -1. -2. -4. -6. -9. -13. -16. -19. -23. -26. 500-300 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 850 MB ENV. VORT. 1. 2. 5. 7. 13. 18. 23. 26. 28. 31. 34. 35. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -2. -2. -2. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -7. -8. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 2. ---------------------------------------------------------- SUB-TOTAL CHANGE 2. 5. 9. 14. 24. 31. 36. 35. 34. 31. 21. 5. INTENSITY ADJUSTMENTS FROM SATELLITE INPUT 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- MEAN ADJUSTMENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES IR STD DEV 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 2. 2. 1. 0. 0. 0. GOES IR PIXEL COUNT -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -2. -1. -1. 0. 1. 0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL ADJUSTMENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -1. -1. -2. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE (KT) 2. 5. 9. 14. 24. 31. 35. 34. 32. 30. 20. 2. ** 2005 ATLANTIC RAPID INTENSITY INDEX ** ( 25 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) ALPHA 10/24/05 12 UTC 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): Value: 0.0 Range: -20.0 to 25.0 Scaled value: 0.71 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : Value: 28.9 Range: 42.5 to 2.5 Scaled value: 0.34 SST (C) : Value: 27.2 Range: 24.3 to 30.4 Scaled value: 0.48 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : Value: 103.0 Range: 27.1 to 136.4 Scaled value: 0.69 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): Value: 76.4 Range: 57.0 to 88.0 Scaled value: 0.63 % area w/pixels <-30 C: Value: 16.0 Range: 17.0 to 100.0 Scaled value: 0.00 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : Value: 14.7 Range: 37.5 to 8.0 Scaled value: 0.77 Scaled RI index= 3.62 Prob of RI= 7.2% is 0.6 times the sample mean(12.1%)