* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES/OHC INPUT INCLUDED * WILMA 10/24/05 18 UTC TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 100 97 92 87 79 57 34 17 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LAND 100 97 92 87 79 57 34 17 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS SHEAR (KTS) 37 40 41 45 59 85 96 89 80 73 56 39 26 SHEAR DIR 199 196 209 237 242 254 262 264 261 255 243 227 199 SST (C) 28.3 27.9 27.0 26.3 25.2 17.6 14.2 12.2 17.1 17.3 16.6 16.5 16.4 POT. INT. (KT) 146 141 129 122 112 78 73 71 77 77 76 76 76 200 MB T (C) -48.7 -49.2 -49.2 -49.3 -48.6 -48.1 -48.1 -46.0 -45.8 -45.2 -46.6 -47.6 -47.6 TH_E DEV (C) 2 1 1 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 1 1 1 500-300 MB RH 45 42 39 44 43 31 28 37 43 48 52 51 53 MO FLX (M/S/D) 12 6 -7 6 2 11 40 38 5 21 0 -3 -1 850 MB VORT 219 257 286 277 246 156 158 183 191 166 141 230 292 LAND (KM) 145 457 412 594 488 247 188 464 850 1154 1337 1425 827 LAT (DEG N) 27.9 30.2 32.5 35.8 39.1 43.7 45.0 45.8 46.5 47.0 47.3 48.1 49.3 LONG(DEG W) 78.9 76.0 73.0 69.2 65.4 58.9 53.2 47.2 41.7 37.5 35.0 29.3 21.2 HEAT CONTENT 39 20 13 3 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI STORM HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KTS) 45/ 25 CX,CY: 18/ 18 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB) 684 (MEAN=643) 200 MB DIVERGENCE x10**5 (T=0) 96 (MEAN= 23) T-12 MAXIMUM WIND (KTS) 105 GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 100-300 KM RAD: 10.1 (MEAN=20.0) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 97.0 (MEAN=68.9) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 7. 8. 9. 10. 11. 11. 12. SST POTENTIAL 1. 1. 1. -1. -11. -23. -38. -52. -64. -73. -81. -85. VERTICAL SHEAR -5. -11. -18. -25. -37. -44. -44. -39. -29. -20. -11. -6. PERSISTENCE 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 200 MB TEMP. -1. -2. -3. -5. -8. -11. -15. -20. -25. -29. -32. -35. THETA_E EXCESS -1. -2. -3. -4. -6. -9. -12. -15. -19. -23. -27. -30. 500-300 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. 850 MB ENV. VORT. 2. 5. 8. 11. 16. 20. 25. 30. 34. 36. 39. 42. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -5. -5. -6. -8. -9. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -7. -8. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 4. 4. 3. ---------------------------------------------------------- SUB-TOTAL CHANGE -4. -9. -15. -23. -44. -67. -84. -96.-103.-110.-114.-118. INTENSITY ADJUSTMENTS FROM SATELLITE INPUT 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- MEAN ADJUSTMENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES IR STD DEV 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES IR PIXEL COUNT 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL ADJUSTMENT 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. -2. -1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE (KT) -3. -8. -13. -21. -43. -66. -83. -96.-104.-112.-116.-120. ** 2005 ATLANTIC RAPID INTENSITY INDEX ** ( 25 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) WILMA 10/24/05 18 UTC 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): Value: 0.0 Range: -20.0 to 25.0 Scaled value: 0.71 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : Value: 44.4 Range: 42.5 to 2.5 Scaled value: 0.00 SST (C) : Value: 26.9 Range: 24.3 to 30.4 Scaled value: 0.43 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : Value: 30.0 Range: 27.1 to 136.4 Scaled value: 0.03 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): Value: 66.6 Range: 57.0 to 88.0 Scaled value: 0.31 % area w/pixels <-30 C: Value: 96.0 Range: 17.0 to 100.0 Scaled value: 0.95 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : Value: 10.1 Range: 37.5 to 8.0 Scaled value: 0.93 Scaled RI index= 3.36 Prob of RI= 4.0% is 0.3 times the sample mean(12.1%)