* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES/OHC INPUT INCLUDED * WILMA 10/25/05 00 UTC TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 110 107 98 87 73 43 18 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LAND 110 107 98 87 73 43 18 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS SHEAR (KTS) 43 52 52 58 71 87 97 79 77 63 51 42 32 SHEAR DIR 203 217 233 241 256 265 267 264 266 257 240 212 187 SST (C) 27.9 26.8 26.5 25.0 22.2 16.3 11.9 13.2 18.2 17.2 15.7 14.5 14.4 POT. INT. (KT) 141 127 124 110 93 76 71 72 79 77 75 73 73 200 MB T (C) -49.4 -49.3 -49.3 -48.9 -49.1 -49.3 -47.9 -45.4 -45.4 -45.4 -45.8 -47.6 -49.3 TH_E DEV (C) 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 1 1 1 0 500-300 MB RH 41 45 47 46 43 30 30 40 46 51 67 67 63 MO FLX (M/S/D) 5 22 13 6 2 16 60 29 3 17 6 14 7 850 MB VORT 247 267 258 235 192 171 154 195 220 205 212 265 374 LAND (KM) 454 376 545 477 344 289 204 578 995 1340 1520 1088 613 LAT (DEG N) 30.2 33.4 36.6 39.2 41.8 44.2 45.9 46.4 46.1 46.7 48.7 50.6 52.6 LONG(DEG W) 76.0 72.6 69.2 65.4 61.5 55.5 50.7 45.4 39.9 35.1 31.1 25.8 19.3 HEAT CONTENT 20 5 5 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI STORM HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KTS) 45/ 33 CX,CY: 23/ 23 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB) 661 (MEAN=643) 200 MB DIVERGENCE x10**5 (T=0) 74 (MEAN= 23) T-12 MAXIMUM WIND (KTS) 95 GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 100-300 KM RAD: 14.1 (MEAN=20.0) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 95.0 (MEAN=68.9) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 7. 8. 9. 10. 11. 11. 12. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. -2. -6. -18. -33. -50. -65. -79. -89. -98.-102. VERTICAL SHEAR -6. -16. -26. -35. -51. -59. -56. -50. -39. -28. -16. -9. PERSISTENCE 2. 3. 3. 2. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 1. 0. -1. 200 MB TEMP. -1. -2. -3. -5. -7. -10. -15. -20. -24. -28. -32. -34. THETA_E EXCESS -1. -2. -3. -4. -6. -9. -12. -16. -19. -23. -27. -31. 500-300 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 850 MB ENV. VORT. 2. 5. 8. 10. 15. 19. 24. 30. 35. 38. 42. 46. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -6. -6. -8. -10. -11. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -7. -8. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 2. ---------------------------------------------------------- SUB-TOTAL CHANGE -3. -11. -23. -37. -66. -91.-107.-121.-127.-132.-134.-135. INTENSITY ADJUSTMENTS FROM SATELLITE INPUT 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- MEAN ADJUSTMENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES IR STD DEV 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES IR PIXEL COUNT 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL ADJUSTMENT 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE (KT) -3. -12. -23. -37. -67. -92.-108.-122.-129.-134.-136.-136. ** 2005 ATLANTIC RAPID INTENSITY INDEX ** ( 25 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) WILMA 10/25/05 00 UTC 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): Value: 15.0 Range: -20.0 to 25.0 Scaled value: 0.60 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : Value: 55.0 Range: 42.5 to 2.5 Scaled value: 0.00 SST (C) : Value: 25.7 Range: 24.3 to 30.4 Scaled value: 0.23 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : Value: 9.0 Range: 27.1 to 136.4 Scaled value: 0.00 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): Value: 70.0 Range: 57.0 to 88.0 Scaled value: 0.42 % area w/pixels <-30 C: Value: 90.0 Range: 17.0 to 100.0 Scaled value: 0.88 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : Value: 14.1 Range: 37.5 to 8.0 Scaled value: 0.79 Scaled RI index= 2.92 Prob of RI= 3.4% is 0.3 times the sample mean(12.1%)