* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES/OHC INPUT INCLUDED * WILMA 10/25/05 06 UTC TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 100 95 87 77 65 38 17 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LAND 100 95 87 77 65 38 17 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS SHEAR (KTS) 46 42 59 68 80 101 91 78 75 67 47 39 32 SHEAR DIR 228 244 255 261 261 264 265 263 262 261 244 219 199 SST (C) 26.7 26.3 25.2 24.0 19.3 13.5 10.1 12.5 17.2 17.0 16.1 15.4 13.6 POT. INT. (KT) 126 122 112 103 82 72 69 71 77 77 75 74 72 200 MB T (C) -49.3 -49.9 -49.6 -49.3 -49.4 -48.5 -45.8 -45.2 -45.9 -46.4 -48.4 -50.3 -49.9 TH_E DEV (C) 1 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 1 1 0 0 500-300 MB RH 47 50 49 42 35 30 35 45 46 54 57 64 61 MO FLX (M/S/D) 7 4 6 14 5 38 52 21 2 -2 2 4 14 850 MB VORT 274 244 209 207 185 135 137 102 129 149 196 243 297 LAND (KM) 429 636 492 436 378 160 363 606 910 1409 1054 767 877 LAT (DEG N) 33.3 36.3 39.3 41.2 43.1 45.3 47.3 47.6 46.8 47.0 48.7 50.6 52.8 LONG(DEG W) 72.0 67.8 63.6 60.5 57.4 52.6 48.0 44.7 40.8 34.1 24.2 21.1 23.2 HEAT CONTENT 7 5 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI STORM HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KTS) 50/ 46 CX,CY: 35/ 30 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB) 641 (MEAN=643) 200 MB DIVERGENCE x10**5 (T=0) 98 (MEAN= 23) T-12 MAXIMUM WIND (KTS) 105 GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 100-300 KM RAD: 15.2 (MEAN=20.0) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 97.0 (MEAN=68.9) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 7. 8. 9. 10. 11. 11. 12. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. -2. -6. -18. -32. -46. -59. -72. -80. -87. -91. VERTICAL SHEAR -4. -12. -20. -28. -41. -45. -39. -33. -21. -12. -2. 2. PERSISTENCE -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -2. -2. -1. 0. 0. 200 MB TEMP. -1. -2. -3. -4. -7. -11. -16. -21. -25. -28. -29. -31. THETA_E EXCESS -1. -2. -3. -4. -6. -9. -12. -16. -19. -23. -27. -31. 500-300 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 850 MB ENV. VORT. 2. 5. 7. 9. 13. 17. 20. 23. 26. 29. 33. 37. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. -1. -3. -4. -6. -7. -8. -8. -8. -11. -14. -15. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -7. -8. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 4. 4. 3. ---------------------------------------------------------- SUB-TOTAL CHANGE -5. -12. -22. -34. -61. -82. -97.-109.-114.-118.-119.-122. INTENSITY ADJUSTMENTS FROM SATELLITE INPUT 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- MEAN ADJUSTMENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES IR STD DEV 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES IR PIXEL COUNT 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL ADJUSTMENT 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE (KT) -5. -13. -23. -35. -61. -83. -98.-110.-115.-120.-121.-123. ** 2005 ATLANTIC RAPID INTENSITY INDEX ** ( 25 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) WILMA 10/25/05 06 UTC 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): Value: -5.0 Range: -20.0 to 25.0 Scaled value: 0.53 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : Value: 58.9 Range: 42.5 to 2.5 Scaled value: 0.00 SST (C) : Value: 24.3 Range: 24.3 to 30.4 Scaled value: 0.00 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : Value: 9.0 Range: 27.1 to 136.4 Scaled value: 0.00 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): Value: 72.4 Range: 57.0 to 88.0 Scaled value: 0.50 % area w/pixels <-30 C: Value: 87.0 Range: 17.0 to 100.0 Scaled value: 0.84 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : Value: 15.2 Range: 37.5 to 8.0 Scaled value: 0.76 Scaled RI index= 2.63 Prob of RI= 3.0% is 0.3 times the sample mean(12.1%)