* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES/OHC INPUT INCLUDED * WILMA 10/25/05 12 UTC TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 90 82 73 62 50 29 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LAND 90 82 73 62 50 29 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS SHEAR (KTS) 51 55 66 84 94 101 83 70 62 50 34 32 41 SHEAR DIR 247 257 260 261 269 276 272 271 264 257 231 198 200 SST (C) 26.4 25.1 22.5 18.6 14.7 11.5 16.6 17.1 18.0 17.7 17.2 14.3 11.7 POT. INT. (KT) 123 111 94 80 73 70 76 77 79 78 77 73 70 200 MB T (C) -49.6 -49.6 -49.7 -49.5 -49.6 -48.0 -44.7 -44.0 -44.7 -45.3 -46.7 -49.3 -51.7 TH_E DEV (C) 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 1 1 1 0 0 500-300 MB RH 52 49 44 33 30 28 40 48 46 51 62 63 77 MO FLX (M/S/D) 0 6 -2 0 39 91 26 32 27 6 5 2 2 850 MB VORT 229 209 183 182 121 82 141 170 219 264 330 342 213 LAND (KM) 585 480 381 385 211 423 833 1192 1583 1291 747 540 854 LAT (DEG N) 36.8 39.4 41.9 43.4 44.8 46.2 46.9 47.0 46.3 46.9 48.8 52.8 58.3 LONG(DEG W) 67.9 63.9 59.9 56.8 53.6 47.6 41.8 37.0 32.0 26.3 19.5 18.2 21.3 HEAT CONTENT 7 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI STORM HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KTS) 45/ 46 CX,CY: 33/ 33 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB) 555 (MEAN=643) 200 MB DIVERGENCE x10**5 (T=0) 149 (MEAN= 23) T-12 MAXIMUM WIND (KTS) 110 GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 100-300 KM RAD: 16.2 (MEAN=20.0) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 92.0 (MEAN=68.9) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 7. 8. 9. 10. 11. 11. 12. SST POTENTIAL -1. -2. -6. -12. -23. -34. -46. -56. -67. -73. -79. -82. VERTICAL SHEAR -4. -10. -17. -22. -30. -30. -24. -18. -6. 2. 9. 12. PERSISTENCE -5. -6. -7. -8. -7. -8. -9. -7. -5. -4. -1. 0. 200 MB TEMP. -1. -2. -3. -4. -7. -12. -17. -23. -27. -31. -34. -35. THETA_E EXCESS -1. -2. -3. -4. -6. -9. -12. -16. -19. -23. -27. -31. 500-300 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 850 MB ENV. VORT. 2. 4. 6. 7. 10. 13. 17. 22. 28. 35. 41. 43. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. -1. -2. -4. -6. -6. -7. -8. -7. -10. -13. -14. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -7. -8. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 5. 5. 5. 4. 6. 6. 5. ---------------------------------------------------------- SUB-TOTAL CHANGE -8. -17. -27. -39. -61. -77. -88. -94. -93. -93. -92. -96. INTENSITY ADJUSTMENTS FROM SATELLITE INPUT 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- MEAN ADJUSTMENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES IR STD DEV 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES IR PIXEL COUNT 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL ADJUSTMENT 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE (KT) -8. -17. -28. -40. -61. -78. -89. -95. -95. -95. -94. -97. ** 2005 ATLANTIC RAPID INTENSITY INDEX ** ( 25 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) WILMA 10/25/05 12 UTC 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): Value: -20.0 Range: -20.0 to 25.0 Scaled value: 0.00 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : Value: 70.1 Range: 42.5 to 2.5 Scaled value: 0.00 SST (C) : Value: 21.5 Range: 24.3 to 30.4 Scaled value: 0.00 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : Value: 6.4 Range: 27.1 to 136.4 Scaled value: 0.00 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): Value: 71.2 Range: 57.0 to 88.0 Scaled value: 0.46 % area w/pixels <-30 C: Value: 78.0 Range: 17.0 to 100.0 Scaled value: 0.73 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : Value: 16.2 Range: 37.5 to 8.0 Scaled value: 0.72 Scaled RI index= 1.92 Prob of RI= 2.2% is 0.2 times the sample mean(12.1%)