* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES/OHC INPUT INCLUDED * WILMA 10/25/05 18 UTC TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 75 65 56 47 39 25 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LAND 75 65 56 47 39 25 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS SHEAR (KTS) 63 66 78 91 100 90 80 65 55 42 32 20 18 SHEAR DIR 254 253 258 263 266 276 278 273 261 247 208 186 179 SST (C) 23.2 21.3 16.4 14.6 12.7 13.4 18.4 18.1 17.6 16.1 15.0 13.9 13.7 POT. INT. (KT) 98 89 76 73 71 72 80 79 78 75 74 72 72 200 MB T (C) -48.8 -49.3 -49.2 -49.1 -48.5 -47.0 -45.8 -45.5 -45.6 -46.8 -48.5 -48.4 -48.4 TH_E DEV (C) 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 1 1 1 0 1 1 500-300 MB RH 53 42 29 24 22 28 36 47 55 59 66 65 60 MO FLX (M/S/D) 5 10 9 32 51 53 16 34 5 4 3 12 18 850 MB VORT 220 207 202 140 109 83 118 166 210 238 266 368 240 LAND (KM) 365 305 249 200 117 597 1073 1486 1434 1009 550 206 -81 LAT (DEG N) 40.3 42.3 44.2 45.0 45.8 46.5 46.0 46.0 46.9 48.8 51.7 53.6 53.9 LONG(DEG W) 64.5 61.3 58.0 55.2 52.3 45.1 38.9 33.4 28.5 23.6 18.3 13.1 8.2 HEAT CONTENT 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 9999 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI STORM HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KTS) 40/ 46 CX,CY: 30/ 35 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB) 616 (MEAN=643) 200 MB DIVERGENCE x10**5 (T=0) 155 (MEAN= 23) T-12 MAXIMUM WIND (KTS) 100 GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 100-300 KM RAD: 18.9 (MEAN=20.0) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 80.0 (MEAN=68.9) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 7. 8. 9. 10. 11. 11. 12. SST POTENTIAL -2. -6. -11. -16. -26. -34. -43. -51. -59. -64. -68. -69. VERTICAL SHEAR -2. -5. -8. -9. -9. -5. -1. 5. 15. 22. 24. 22. PERSISTENCE -6. -9. -11. -12. -12. -13. -13. -11. -8. -6. -2. 0. 200 MB TEMP. -1. -2. -3. -5. -8. -13. -18. -23. -27. -29. -32. -35. THETA_E EXCESS -1. -2. -3. -4. -6. -9. -12. -16. -19. -23. -27. -31. 500-300 MB RH 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. 0. 850 MB ENV. VORT. 2. 4. 6. 7. 9. 12. 16. 21. 26. 32. 38. 41. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. -1. -2. -3. -5. -6. -7. -7. -7. -9. -12. -13. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -7. -8. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 5. 5. 6. 5. 6. 7. 5. ---------------------------------------------------------- SUB-TOTAL CHANGE -10. -19. -27. -35. -49. -60. -69. -72. -70. -68. -68. -76. INTENSITY ADJUSTMENTS FROM SATELLITE INPUT 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- MEAN ADJUSTMENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES IR STD DEV 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES IR PIXEL COUNT 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL ADJUSTMENT 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE (KT) -10. -19. -28. -36. -50. -62. -70. -74. -71. -70. -70. -77. ** 2005 ATLANTIC RAPID INTENSITY INDEX ** ( 25 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) WILMA 10/25/05 18 UTC 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): Value: -25.0 Range: -20.0 to 25.0 Scaled value: 0.00 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : Value: 79.6 Range: 42.5 to 2.5 Scaled value: 0.00 SST (C) : Value: 17.6 Range: 24.3 to 30.4 Scaled value: 0.00 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : Value: 6.4 Range: 27.1 to 136.4 Scaled value: 0.00 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): Value: 70.0 Range: 57.0 to 88.0 Scaled value: 0.42 % area w/pixels <-30 C: Value: 67.0 Range: 17.0 to 100.0 Scaled value: 0.60 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : Value: 18.9 Range: 37.5 to 8.0 Scaled value: 0.63 Scaled RI index= 1.65 Prob of RI= 1.9% is 0.2 times the sample mean(12.1%)