* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES/OHC INPUT INCLUDED * INVEST 10/26/05 00 UTC TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 25 28 32 36 39 46 51 54 57 59 59 57 54 V (KT) LAND 25 28 32 36 39 46 35 29 28 27 27 27 27 SHEAR (KTS) 3 3 7 9 14 15 16 16 13 9 13 14 21 SHEAR DIR 33 283 255 233 208 196 200 218 212 213 156 150 139 SST (C) 29.4 29.4 29.3 29.3 29.3 29.3 29.4 29.2 29.2 29.1 28.8 28.4 28.2 POT. INT. (KT) 164 164 162 162 162 162 164 160 160 159 154 148 145 200 MB T (C) -53.2 -53.8 -54.3 -53.7 -53.4 -54.3 -53.6 -53.8 -53.2 -53.6 -53.0 -53.6 -53.0 TH_E DEV (C) 7 7 5 7 6 5 8 6 7 5 6 5 7 500-300 MB RH 70 69 68 63 64 58 52 49 45 45 43 42 37 MO FLX (M/S/D) -1 0 0 2 2 0 -3 -2 1 0 -6 0 3 850 MB VORT 50 62 59 50 62 59 64 68 80 67 79 65 52 LAND (KM) 125 177 162 167 124 13 -54 -146 -115 -107 -133 -100 -23 LAT (DEG N) 10.5 10.7 10.8 11.3 11.7 12.7 13.6 14.3 14.8 14.8 14.5 14.0 13.6 LONG(DEG W) 80.2 80.9 81.6 82.1 82.6 83.4 84.0 84.8 85.5 86.2 86.9 88.1 89.5 HEAT CONTENT 58 57 55 53 51 57 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 FORECAST TRACK FROM BAMM STORM HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KTS) 270/ 3 CX,CY: -2/ 0 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB) 536 (MEAN=643) 200 MB DIVERGENCE x10**5 (T=0) 73 (MEAN= 23) T-12 MAXIMUM WIND (KTS) 25 GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 100-300 KM RAD: 12.7 (MEAN=20.0) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 87.0 (MEAN=68.9) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 7. 8. 9. 10. 11. 11. 12. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 0. 2. 5. 10. 15. 18. 22. 25. 28. 30. VERTICAL SHEAR 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 4. 3. 2. 1. 1. -1. -3. PERSISTENCE 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 200 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. THETA_E EXCESS 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -7. -9. -11. -13. -15. 500-300 MB RH 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 850 MB ENV. VORT. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 4. 5. 6. 7. 8. 9. 9. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 2. 2. 1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -7. -8. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 3. 2. ---------------------------------------------------------- SUB-TOTAL CHANGE 2. 5. 7. 11. 17. 23. 27. 31. 34. 35. 34. 31. INTENSITY ADJUSTMENTS FROM SATELLITE INPUT 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- MEAN ADJUSTMENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES IR STD DEV 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 3. 3. 2. 1. 1. 0. -1. GOES IR PIXEL COUNT 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL ADJUSTMENT 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 4. 3. 1. 0. -1. -2. -2. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE (KT) 3. 7. 11. 14. 21. 26. 29. 32. 34. 34. 32. 29. ** 2005 ATLANTIC RAPID INTENSITY INDEX ** ( 25 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) INVEST 10/26/05 00 UTC 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): Value: 0.0 Range: -20.0 to 25.0 Scaled value: 0.71 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : Value: 7.2 Range: 42.5 to 2.5 Scaled value: 0.88 SST (C) : Value: 29.3 Range: 24.3 to 30.4 Scaled value: 0.83 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : Value: 137.7 Range: 27.1 to 136.4 Scaled value: 1.00 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): Value: 82.6 Range: 57.0 to 88.0 Scaled value: 0.83 % area w/pixels <-30 C: Value: 57.0 Range: 17.0 to 100.0 Scaled value: 0.48 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : Value: 12.7 Range: 37.5 to 8.0 Scaled value: 0.84 Scaled RI index= 5.56 Prob of RI= 55.6% is 4.6 times the sample mean(12.1%)