* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES/OHC INPUT INCLUDED * INVEST 10/26/05 12 UTC TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 25 28 31 33 37 43 48 51 51 51 46 39 33 V (KT) LAND 25 28 31 33 37 37 31 28 27 27 25 18 DIS SHEAR (KTS) 5 2 10 15 14 16 15 16 13 19 23 29 27 SHEAR DIR 318 294 184 188 193 174 194 185 177 146 148 146 143 SST (C) 29.7 29.7 29.6 29.5 29.5 29.3 29.0 28.6 28.2 28.0 28.1 28.2 28.3 POT. INT. (KT) 165 165 165 165 165 162 157 151 145 142 143 145 146 200 MB T (C) -54.1 -53.8 -53.5 -53.8 -54.2 -53.7 -53.9 -53.4 -53.7 -53.5 -54.1 -53.9 -54.2 TH_E DEV (C) 5 6 6 5 5 7 7 7 5 6 4 5 3 500-300 MB RH 72 65 67 65 64 53 50 43 40 34 34 29 26 MO FLX (M/S/D) 0 0 2 1 0 -1 -1 0 -1 5 3 2 2 850 MB VORT 67 62 63 65 63 56 56 71 52 59 53 30 -7 LAND (KM) 145 195 188 164 105 -7 -97 -205 -129 -6 100 222 308 LAT (DEG N) 10.5 10.9 11.2 11.6 12.0 12.7 13.2 13.4 13.3 12.8 12.2 11.7 11.5 LONG(DEG W) 80.5 81.2 81.8 82.3 82.7 83.6 84.4 85.4 86.4 87.5 89.0 90.7 92.5 HEAT CONTENT 53 58 54 49 52 54 9999 9999 9999 11 10 7 9 FORECAST TRACK FROM BAMM STORM HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KTS) 270/ 3 CX,CY: -2/ 0 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB) 565 (MEAN=643) 200 MB DIVERGENCE x10**5 (T=0) 9 (MEAN= 23) T-12 MAXIMUM WIND (KTS) 25 GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 100-300 KM RAD: 16.0 (MEAN=20.0) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 95.0 (MEAN=68.9) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 7. 8. 9. 10. 11. 11. 12. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 0. 2. 5. 10. 15. 18. 21. 23. 26. 28. VERTICAL SHEAR 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 3. 2. 1. -2. -6. -11. -16. PERSISTENCE 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 200 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 4. 5. THETA_E EXCESS 0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -5. -7. -9. -11. -14. -16. 500-300 MB RH 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 850 MB ENV. VORT. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. 7. 8. 8. 6. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -7. -8. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- SUB-TOTAL CHANGE 2. 3. 5. 8. 14. 19. 23. 25. 26. 22. 16. 9. INTENSITY ADJUSTMENTS FROM SATELLITE INPUT 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- MEAN ADJUSTMENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES IR STD DEV 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. 0. GOES IR PIXEL COUNT 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL ADJUSTMENT 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 4. 3. 1. 0. -1. -2. -2. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE (KT) 3. 6. 8. 12. 18. 23. 26. 26. 26. 21. 14. 8. ** 2005 ATLANTIC RAPID INTENSITY INDEX ** ( 25 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) INVEST 10/26/05 12 UTC 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): Value: 0.0 Range: -20.0 to 25.0 Scaled value: 0.71 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : Value: 9.3 Range: 42.5 to 2.5 Scaled value: 0.83 SST (C) : Value: 29.6 Range: 24.3 to 30.4 Scaled value: 0.87 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : Value: 140.0 Range: 27.1 to 136.4 Scaled value: 1.00 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): Value: 83.0 Range: 57.0 to 88.0 Scaled value: 0.84 % area w/pixels <-30 C: Value: 88.0 Range: 17.0 to 100.0 Scaled value: 0.86 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : Value: 16.0 Range: 37.5 to 8.0 Scaled value: 0.73 Scaled RI index= 5.83 Prob of RI= 64.5% is 5.3 times the sample mean(12.1%)