* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES/OHC INPUT INCLUDED * INVEST 10/26/05 12 UTC TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 20 21 23 26 30 38 46 53 58 62 66 70 71 V (KT) LAND 20 21 23 26 30 38 46 53 58 62 66 70 71 SHEAR (KTS) 14 8 4 6 9 7 13 11 16 12 11 6 10 SHEAR DIR 268 296 265 319 351 332 345 357 360 359 340 338 283 SST (C) 29.5 29.4 29.4 29.5 29.6 29.8 29.7 29.8 29.7 29.7 29.4 29.2 29.0 POT. INT. (KT) 165 164 164 165 165 165 165 165 165 165 164 160 157 200 MB T (C) -54.0 -53.4 -53.4 -53.6 -53.6 -53.4 -53.8 -53.4 -53.7 -53.3 -53.7 -53.3 -53.6 TH_E DEV (C) 10 11 11 11 11 12 10 11 10 11 10 10 8 500-300 MB RH 60 52 50 53 51 53 58 58 56 56 59 57 57 MO FLX (M/S/D) 2 3 0 0 0 -4 -4 -7 -3 -5 -3 0 1 850 MB VORT 7 13 19 19 16 30 50 36 41 27 57 65 66 LAND (KM) 519 457 347 256 210 244 296 245 222 302 252 100 8 LAT (DEG N) 11.3 11.7 12.1 12.4 12.6 12.9 13.2 13.6 14.2 15.0 15.9 16.9 17.8 LONG(DEG W) 55.7 56.9 58.1 59.3 60.4 62.9 65.5 68.1 70.6 72.8 74.7 76.3 77.8 HEAT CONTENT 60 79 96 88 91 101 83 76 106 125 107 107 98 FORECAST TRACK FROM BAMM STORM HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KTS) 300/ 9 CX,CY: -7/ 5 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB) 547 (MEAN=643) 200 MB DIVERGENCE x10**5 (T=0) 45 (MEAN= 23) T-12 MAXIMUM WIND (KTS) 20 GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 100-300 KM RAD: 28.5 (MEAN=20.0) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 48.0 (MEAN=68.9) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 7. 8. 9. 10. 11. 11. 12. SST POTENTIAL 0. -1. -1. 0. 3. 9. 15. 19. 24. 27. 31. 34. VERTICAL SHEAR 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 7. 6. 5. 4. 4. 4. 4. PERSISTENCE 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 200 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. 500-300 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 850 MB ENV. VORT. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -7. -8. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. ---------------------------------------------------------- SUB-TOTAL CHANGE 1. 2. 5. 8. 15. 24. 30. 34. 39. 42. 47. 50. INTENSITY ADJUSTMENTS FROM SATELLITE INPUT 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- MEAN ADJUSTMENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES IR STD DEV 1. 2. 2. 2. 3. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. GOES IR PIXEL COUNT 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 4. 3. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL ADJUSTMENT 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 4. 4. 3. 1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE (KT) 1. 3. 6. 10. 18. 26. 33. 38. 42. 46. 50. 51. ** 2005 ATLANTIC RAPID INTENSITY INDEX ** ( 25 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) INVEST 10/26/05 12 UTC 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): Value: 0.0 Range: -20.0 to 25.0 Scaled value: 0.71 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : Value: 8.4 Range: 42.5 to 2.5 Scaled value: 0.85 SST (C) : Value: 29.5 Range: 24.3 to 30.4 Scaled value: 0.85 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : Value: 144.5 Range: 27.1 to 136.4 Scaled value: 1.00 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): Value: 77.8 Range: 57.0 to 88.0 Scaled value: 0.67 % area w/pixels <-30 C: Value: 33.0 Range: 17.0 to 100.0 Scaled value: 0.19 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : Value: 28.5 Range: 37.5 to 8.0 Scaled value: 0.31 Scaled RI index= 4.58 Prob of RI= 21.3% is 1.8 times the sample mean(12.1%)