* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES/OHC INPUT INCLUDED * INVEST 10/26/05 18 UTC TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 25 27 30 34 37 44 50 53 53 53 49 44 41 V (KT) LAND 25 27 30 34 37 34 29 28 27 29 26 21 18 SHEAR (KTS) 3 4 6 8 9 13 13 17 14 18 19 22 21 SHEAR DIR 303 162 179 179 171 169 183 175 165 149 152 156 136 SST (C) 29.6 29.6 29.6 29.5 29.4 29.2 28.7 28.2 28.0 28.1 28.4 28.1 27.5 POT. INT. (KT) 165 165 165 165 164 160 152 145 142 143 148 143 135 200 MB T (C) -53.9 -53.7 -54.0 -54.3 -53.7 -53.6 -53.2 -53.5 -53.6 -53.9 -54.2 -54.1 -54.2 TH_E DEV (C) 6 6 5 5 7 6 8 7 8 7 7 7 9 500-300 MB RH 65 64 66 66 60 55 46 44 34 36 29 21 15 MO FLX (M/S/D) 0 0 0 0 0 0 2 -3 0 -3 2 0 -2 850 MB VORT 72 72 74 71 68 60 77 73 51 38 24 0 -2 LAND (KM) 136 144 152 135 79 -47 -162 -151 -30 59 222 382 557 LAT (DEG N) 10.2 10.6 11.0 11.4 11.8 12.6 13.2 13.3 13.1 12.6 11.9 11.1 10.7 LONG(DEG W) 81.1 81.6 82.1 82.6 83.0 84.0 85.0 86.1 87.5 89.1 91.1 93.3 95.6 HEAT CONTENT 58 59 62 54 59 9999 9999 9999 9999 10 11 12 6 FORECAST TRACK FROM BAMM STORM HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KTS) 270/ 6 CX,CY: -5/ 0 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB) 623 (MEAN=643) 200 MB DIVERGENCE x10**5 (T=0) -5 (MEAN= 23) T-12 MAXIMUM WIND (KTS) 25 GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 100-300 KM RAD: 19.2 (MEAN=20.0) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 90.0 (MEAN=68.9) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 7. 8. 9. 10. 11. 11. 12. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 0. 2. 5. 10. 15. 18. 21. 24. 27. 28. VERTICAL SHEAR 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. 4. 3. 1. -2. -7. -9. PERSISTENCE 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 200 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 4. 5. THETA_E EXCESS 0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -5. -7. -8. -10. -12. -14. 500-300 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. 850 MB ENV. VORT. 0. 1. 2. 2. 3. 5. 6. 7. 8. 8. 7. 6. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -7. -8. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. ---------------------------------------------------------- SUB-TOTAL CHANGE 1. 3. 6. 9. 15. 22. 26. 28. 28. 25. 21. 18. INTENSITY ADJUSTMENTS FROM SATELLITE INPUT 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- MEAN ADJUSTMENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES IR STD DEV 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 2. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. GOES IR PIXEL COUNT 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL ADJUSTMENT 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 2. 1. 0. -1. -2. -2. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE (KT) 2. 5. 9. 12. 19. 25. 28. 28. 28. 24. 19. 16. ** 2005 ATLANTIC RAPID INTENSITY INDEX ** ( 25 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) INVEST 10/26/05 18 UTC 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): Value: 0.0 Range: -20.0 to 25.0 Scaled value: 0.71 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : Value: 6.1 Range: 42.5 to 2.5 Scaled value: 0.91 SST (C) : Value: 29.5 Range: 24.3 to 30.4 Scaled value: 0.86 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : Value: 139.8 Range: 27.1 to 136.4 Scaled value: 1.00 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): Value: 82.2 Range: 57.0 to 88.0 Scaled value: 0.81 % area w/pixels <-30 C: Value: 82.0 Range: 17.0 to 100.0 Scaled value: 0.78 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : Value: 19.2 Range: 37.5 to 8.0 Scaled value: 0.62 Scaled RI index= 5.69 Prob of RI= 59.9% is 5.0 times the sample mean(12.1%)