* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES/OHC INPUT INCLUDED * INVEST 10/26/05 18 UTC TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 20 22 24 27 31 38 45 52 56 61 66 72 75 V (KT) LAND 20 22 24 27 31 38 45 52 56 61 66 72 75 SHEAR (KTS) 10 8 7 10 10 13 15 12 12 6 6 2 5 SHEAR DIR 292 307 342 357 2 343 13 5 17 25 24 61 95 SST (C) 29.4 29.4 29.6 29.7 29.7 29.6 29.7 29.7 29.8 29.5 29.2 28.9 28.7 POT. INT. (KT) 164 164 165 165 165 165 165 165 165 165 160 155 152 200 MB T (C) -53.5 -53.4 -53.6 -53.6 -53.3 -53.8 -53.3 -53.5 -53.3 -53.5 -53.4 -53.6 -53.6 TH_E DEV (C) 12 11 11 12 14 10 13 9 11 9 10 9 10 500-300 MB RH 54 50 54 56 55 62 61 61 59 62 60 65 63 MO FLX (M/S/D) 2 1 0 0 0 -5 -1 0 0 0 0 0 0 850 MB VORT 13 14 10 10 22 42 42 36 36 40 67 95 74 LAND (KM) 407 278 164 117 144 205 141 94 166 301 379 336 328 LAT (DEG N) 11.3 11.5 11.7 11.9 12.0 12.2 12.5 12.8 13.3 13.8 14.3 14.9 15.6 LONG(DEG W) 57.3 58.6 59.8 61.1 62.4 65.1 68.0 70.6 73.0 75.0 76.9 78.6 80.2 HEAT CONTENT 68 81 78 95 92 61 52 87 108 104 117 61 63 FORECAST TRACK FROM BAMM STORM HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KTS) 285/ 11 CX,CY: -10/ 3 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB) 595 (MEAN=643) 200 MB DIVERGENCE x10**5 (T=0) 56 (MEAN= 23) T-12 MAXIMUM WIND (KTS) 20 GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 100-300 KM RAD: 19.5 (MEAN=20.0) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 53.0 (MEAN=68.9) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 7. 8. 9. 10. 11. 11. 12. SST POTENTIAL 0. -1. -1. 0. 3. 9. 15. 19. 24. 27. 31. 34. VERTICAL SHEAR 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 5. 5. 4. 4. 5. 6. 7. PERSISTENCE 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 200 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 3. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. 500-300 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 850 MB ENV. VORT. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -7. -8. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. ---------------------------------------------------------- SUB-TOTAL CHANGE 1. 3. 5. 8. 15. 22. 29. 33. 38. 44. 50. 55. INTENSITY ADJUSTMENTS FROM SATELLITE INPUT 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- MEAN ADJUSTMENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES IR STD DEV 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 2. 1. 1. 0. 0. GOES IR PIXEL COUNT 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 2. 2. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL ADJUSTMENT 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 2. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE (KT) 2. 4. 7. 11. 18. 25. 32. 36. 41. 46. 52. 55. ** 2005 ATLANTIC RAPID INTENSITY INDEX ** ( 25 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) INVEST 10/26/05 18 UTC 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): Value: 0.0 Range: -20.0 to 25.0 Scaled value: 0.71 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : Value: 9.0 Range: 42.5 to 2.5 Scaled value: 0.84 SST (C) : Value: 29.6 Range: 24.3 to 30.4 Scaled value: 0.86 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : Value: 144.5 Range: 27.1 to 136.4 Scaled value: 1.00 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): Value: 77.2 Range: 57.0 to 88.0 Scaled value: 0.65 % area w/pixels <-30 C: Value: 33.0 Range: 17.0 to 100.0 Scaled value: 0.19 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : Value: 19.5 Range: 37.5 to 8.0 Scaled value: 0.61 Scaled RI index= 4.86 Prob of RI= 32.0% is 2.6 times the sample mean(12.1%)