* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES/OHC INPUT INCLUDED * TWENTY-SIX 10/27/05 00 UTC TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 30 34 39 43 48 54 59 61 60 56 50 44 41 V (KT) LAND 30 34 39 43 48 33 29 27 29 26 19 DIS DIS SHEAR (KTS) 5 6 7 7 12 12 15 13 16 19 23 16 19 SHEAR DIR 217 205 194 174 167 182 189 197 159 161 156 157 138 SST (C) 29.6 29.6 29.5 29.4 29.3 28.9 28.3 28.0 28.2 28.4 28.2 27.6 28.0 POT. INT. (KT) 165 165 165 164 162 155 146 142 145 148 145 137 142 200 MB T (C) -53.8 -54.0 -54.3 -53.8 -53.6 -53.9 -53.5 -54.0 -53.6 -54.3 -53.9 -54.2 -54.0 TH_E DEV (C) 6 5 6 8 8 7 7 6 7 5 7 6 9 500-300 MB RH 64 63 64 57 54 52 41 37 37 33 27 25 19 MO FLX (M/S/D) 1 0 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 4 1 3 0 850 MB VORT 63 61 60 64 63 58 61 49 39 14 3 -15 -18 LAND (KM) 181 176 121 60 0 -118 -158 -45 39 191 339 477 527 LAT (DEG N) 11.0 11.4 11.8 12.1 12.4 12.9 13.2 13.1 12.8 12.2 11.8 11.4 11.3 LONG(DEG W) 81.6 82.1 82.6 83.1 83.6 84.6 85.9 87.3 89.1 91.3 93.8 96.3 98.7 HEAT CONTENT 61 55 53 58 54 9999 9999 9999 9 13 11 9 11 FORECAST TRACK FROM BAMM STORM HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KTS) 290/ 6 CX,CY: -5/ 2 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB) 604 (MEAN=643) 200 MB DIVERGENCE x10**5 (T=0) 19 (MEAN= 23) T-12 MAXIMUM WIND (KTS) 25 GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 100-300 KM RAD: 13.1 (MEAN=20.0) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 97.0 (MEAN=68.9) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 7. 8. 9. 10. 11. 11. 12. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 1. 3. 6. 11. 15. 17. 21. 23. 25. 26. VERTICAL SHEAR 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 3. 2. -1. -5. -8. -10. PERSISTENCE 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 2. 1. 0. 0. 200 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 4. 5. 5. THETA_E EXCESS 0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -8. -10. -12. -13. 500-300 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. 850 MB ENV. VORT. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 5. 5. 5. 4. 2. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -7. -8. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- SUB-TOTAL CHANGE 3. 6. 10. 14. 20. 25. 28. 29. 27. 21. 16. 13. INTENSITY ADJUSTMENTS FROM SATELLITE INPUT 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- MEAN ADJUSTMENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES IR STD DEV 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 2. 1. 1. 0. 0. GOES IR PIXEL COUNT 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL ADJUSTMENT 1. 3. 4. 4. 4. 4. 3. 1. 0. -1. -2. -2. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE (KT) 4. 9. 13. 18. 24. 29. 31. 30. 26. 20. 14. 11. ** 2005 ATLANTIC RAPID INTENSITY INDEX ** ( 25 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) TWENTY-SIX 10/27/05 00 UTC 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): Value: 5.0 Range: -20.0 to 25.0 Scaled value: 0.88 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : Value: 7.5 Range: 42.5 to 2.5 Scaled value: 0.87 SST (C) : Value: 29.5 Range: 24.3 to 30.4 Scaled value: 0.85 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : Value: 134.2 Range: 27.1 to 136.4 Scaled value: 0.98 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): Value: 81.2 Range: 57.0 to 88.0 Scaled value: 0.78 % area w/pixels <-30 C: Value: 82.0 Range: 17.0 to 100.0 Scaled value: 0.78 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : Value: 13.1 Range: 37.5 to 8.0 Scaled value: 0.83 Scaled RI index= 5.98 Prob of RI= 69.5% is 5.7 times the sample mean(12.1%)