* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES/OHC INPUT INCLUDED * BETA 10/27/05 06 UTC TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 35 40 44 47 51 57 61 65 65 64 61 59 55 V (KT) LAND 35 40 44 47 51 57 38 30 28 27 27 27 27 SHEAR (KTS) 8 6 8 13 16 15 13 11 13 11 13 7 17 SHEAR DIR 223 196 168 167 186 192 187 182 168 168 179 143 166 SST (C) 29.6 29.6 29.5 29.4 29.4 29.3 28.9 28.5 28.3 28.2 28.1 28.3 28.6 POT. INT. (KT) 165 165 165 164 164 162 155 149 146 145 143 146 151 200 MB T (C) -53.8 -54.2 -53.8 -53.6 -53.8 -53.7 -53.7 -53.8 -53.7 -53.7 -53.7 -53.8 -53.7 TH_E DEV (C) 5 5 7 8 7 8 7 8 6 6 4 6 4 500-300 MB RH 65 67 62 60 55 47 47 43 48 45 46 44 44 MO FLX (M/S/D) 0 1 0 0 0 1 0 0 1 0 0 0 0 850 MB VORT 52 50 52 55 54 58 59 57 60 73 75 45 32 LAND (KM) 204 187 145 111 86 10 -119 -194 -166 -129 -77 -99 -79 LAT (DEG N) 11.3 11.7 12.1 12.6 13.0 13.1 13.1 13.1 13.1 13.3 13.6 14.0 14.6 LONG(DEG W) 81.7 82.0 82.3 82.5 82.7 83.4 84.6 85.3 85.7 86.4 87.4 88.7 90.1 HEAT CONTENT 57 50 50 59 51 51 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI STORM HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KTS) 315/ 4 CX,CY: -2/ 3 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB) 607 (MEAN=643) 200 MB DIVERGENCE x10**5 (T=0) 14 (MEAN= 23) T-12 MAXIMUM WIND (KTS) 25 GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 100-300 KM RAD: 20.0 (MEAN=20.0) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 63.0 (MEAN=68.9) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 7. 8. 9. 10. 11. 11. 12. SST POTENTIAL 1. 1. 2. 4. 7. 12. 16. 18. 21. 22. 24. 25. VERTICAL SHEAR 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -2. -2. -3. PERSISTENCE 2. 4. 5. 6. 7. 7. 7. 6. 4. 3. 1. 0. 200 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 4. THETA_E EXCESS 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -7. -8. -11. -13. -15. 500-300 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 850 MB ENV. VORT. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. 8. 8. 8. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -7. -8. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- SUB-TOTAL CHANGE 4. 8. 12. 15. 21. 26. 30. 31. 30. 27. 26. 22. INTENSITY ADJUSTMENTS FROM SATELLITE INPUT 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- MEAN ADJUSTMENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES IR STD DEV 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. GOES IR PIXEL COUNT 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL ADJUSTMENT 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE (KT) 5. 9. 12. 16. 22. 26. 30. 30. 29. 26. 24. 20. ** 2005 ATLANTIC RAPID INTENSITY INDEX ** ( 25 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) BETA 10/27/05 06 UTC 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): Value: 10.0 Range: -20.0 to 25.0 Scaled value: 0.90 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : Value: 10.1 Range: 42.5 to 2.5 Scaled value: 0.81 SST (C) : Value: 29.5 Range: 24.3 to 30.4 Scaled value: 0.85 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : Value: 129.5 Range: 27.1 to 136.4 Scaled value: 0.94 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): Value: 81.8 Range: 57.0 to 88.0 Scaled value: 0.80 % area w/pixels <-30 C: Value: 50.0 Range: 17.0 to 100.0 Scaled value: 0.40 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : Value: 20.0 Range: 37.5 to 8.0 Scaled value: 0.59 Scaled RI index= 5.29 Prob of RI= 46.4% is 3.8 times the sample mean(12.1%)