* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES INPUT INCLUDED * INVEST 10/27/05 06 UTC TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 20 20 21 23 25 30 35 40 44 46 47 45 42 V (KT) LAND 20 20 21 23 25 30 35 40 44 46 47 45 42 SHEAR (KTS) 5 6 2 4 6 13 20 17 16 20 18 28 33 SHEAR DIR 43 25 32 177 211 230 231 234 246 278 277 272 269 SST (C) 28.2 28.3 28.3 28.3 28.3 28.2 27.9 27.8 27.7 27.6 27.1 26.6 26.8 POT. INT. (KT) 149 150 150 150 150 149 146 145 144 143 138 132 135 200 MB T (C) -54.2 -54.4 -54.5 -54.3 -54.0 -54.0 -54.1 -55.0 -55.4 -55.5 -55.7 -56.0 -56.2 TH_E DEV (C) 7 7 7 7 7 7 7 7 7 6 6 6 6 500-300 MB RH 18 16 16 17 19 17 21 28 35 34 38 44 48 MO FLX (M/S/D) 0 0 0 -1 0 0 1 6 11 -3 -6 0 -10 850 MB VORT -20 -24 -27 -18 -10 -11 5 -7 -20 -30 -23 -46 -47 LAND (KM) 1412 1426 1442 1466 1491 1564 1697 1842 1968 2143 2329 2386 2072 LAT (DEG N) 12.2 12.4 12.6 12.6 12.5 12.2 11.8 11.7 12.0 12.3 12.7 13.2 13.7 LONG(DEG W) 117.2 117.8 118.3 118.6 118.9 119.6 121.0 123.0 125.2 127.8 130.5 133.4 136.3 FORECAST TRACK FROM BAMM STORM HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KTS) 280/ 7 CX,CY: -6/ 1 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB) 572 (MEAN=601) 200 MB DIVERGENCE x10**5 (T=0) -38 (MEAN= 18) T-12 MAXIMUM WIND (KTS) 20 GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 100-300 KM RAD: 22.1 (MEAN=18.0) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 32.0 (MEAN=64.4) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 2. 4. 9. 15. 21. 26. 29. 30. 31. 31. VERTICAL SHEAR 1. 2. 4. 5. 7. 6. 6. 5. 4. 4. 3. 1. PERSISTENCE 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 200 MB TEMP. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. 7. 9. 10. THETA_E EXCESS 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -6. -7. -8. 500-300 MB RH 0. -1. -1. -2. -4. -5. -5. -4. -4. -4. -4. -3. 850 MB ENV. VORT. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. -5. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. 0. 1. 2. 2. 2. ---------------------------------------------------------- SUB-TOTAL CHANGE 0. 1. 2. 3. 8. 12. 16. 20. 21. 22. 21. 20. INTENSITY ADJUSTMENTS FROM SATELLITE INPUT 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- MEAN ADJUSTMENT 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES IR STD DEV 1. 3. 4. 5. 6. 7. 6. 5. 4. 3. 3. 3. GOES IR PIXEL COUNT -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -2. -1. 0. 2. 3. 2. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL ADJUSTMENT 0. 1. 1. 1. 3. 3. 4. 4. 4. 5. 4. 2. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE (KT) 0. 1. 3. 5. 10. 15. 20. 24. 26. 27. 25. 22. ** 2005 E. PACIFIC RAPID INTENSITY INDEX ** ( 25 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) INVEST 10/27/05 06 UTC 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): Value: 0.0 Range: -20.0 to 45.0 Scaled value: 0.63 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : Value: 4.6 Range: 17.3 to 1.9 Scaled value: 0.82 SST (C) : Value: 28.3 Range: 26.7 to 30.1 Scaled value: 0.46 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : Value: 130.0 Range: 38.3 to 135.0 Scaled value: 0.95 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): Value: 68.2 Range: 66.0 to 88.0 Scaled value: 0.10 % area w/pixels <-30 C: Value: 29.0 Range: 26.0 to 100.0 Scaled value: 0.04 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : Value: 22.1 Range: 28.9 to 5.9 Scaled value: 0.30 Scaled RI index= 3.30 Prob of RI= 14.7% is 1.2 times the sample mean(12.0%)