* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES/OHC INPUT INCLUDED * BETA 10/27/05 12 UTC TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 35 39 43 46 50 58 64 68 69 68 66 62 58 V (KT) LAND 35 39 43 46 50 58 64 44 33 29 27 27 30 SHEAR (KTS) 9 8 10 12 9 11 7 12 13 16 8 13 14 SHEAR DIR 208 180 159 176 166 121 136 112 114 118 112 128 166 SST (C) 29.6 29.6 29.5 29.5 29.4 29.4 29.3 29.2 28.8 28.3 28.0 28.1 28.4 POT. INT. (KT) 165 165 165 165 164 164 162 160 154 146 142 143 148 200 MB T (C) -53.8 -53.4 -53.3 -53.7 -53.9 -53.3 -53.7 -53.3 -53.9 -53.4 -53.8 -53.4 -53.7 TH_E DEV (C) 5 7 7 7 6 8 7 7 6 6 4 6 3 500-300 MB RH 70 69 68 61 60 54 49 47 46 42 42 41 39 MO FLX (M/S/D) 0 0 0 0 -3 -3 0 0 2 -1 0 0 0 850 MB VORT 66 75 76 68 72 71 61 61 55 60 58 45 21 LAND (KM) 236 239 208 180 153 98 21 -54 -126 -149 -67 -11 1 LAT (DEG N) 11.4 11.8 12.1 12.4 12.6 12.7 13.0 13.0 12.8 12.8 13.0 13.2 13.7 LONG(DEG W) 81.3 81.5 81.7 81.9 82.1 82.6 83.3 84.0 84.7 85.6 86.9 88.4 90.1 HEAT CONTENT 57 50 45 44 47 57 53 9999 9999 9999 9999 8 21 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI STORM HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KTS) 350/ 3 CX,CY: 0/ 3 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB) 588 (MEAN=643) 200 MB DIVERGENCE x10**5 (T=0) 40 (MEAN= 23) T-12 MAXIMUM WIND (KTS) 30 GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 100-300 KM RAD: 20.5 (MEAN=20.0) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 84.0 (MEAN=68.9) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 7. 8. 9. 10. 11. 11. 12. SST POTENTIAL 1. 1. 2. 4. 7. 12. 16. 19. 22. 23. 25. 25. VERTICAL SHEAR 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 4. 2. 1. 0. -1. PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 2. 2. 1. 0. 0. 200 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. THETA_E EXCESS 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -8. -10. -13. -15. 500-300 MB RH 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 850 MB ENV. VORT. 0. 1. 2. 2. 4. 5. 6. 7. 8. 9. 9. 8. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -7. -8. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. ---------------------------------------------------------- SUB-TOTAL CHANGE 3. 6. 9. 13. 21. 27. 32. 34. 34. 32. 29. 25. INTENSITY ADJUSTMENTS FROM SATELLITE INPUT 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- MEAN ADJUSTMENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES IR STD DEV 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. GOES IR PIXEL COUNT 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL ADJUSTMENT 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE (KT) 4. 8. 11. 15. 23. 29. 34. 34. 33. 31. 27. 23. ** 2005 ATLANTIC RAPID INTENSITY INDEX ** ( 25 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) BETA 10/27/05 12 UTC 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): Value: 5.0 Range: -20.0 to 25.0 Scaled value: 0.88 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : Value: 9.5 Range: 42.5 to 2.5 Scaled value: 0.82 SST (C) : Value: 29.5 Range: 24.3 to 30.4 Scaled value: 0.86 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : Value: 129.8 Range: 27.1 to 136.4 Scaled value: 0.94 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): Value: 82.0 Range: 57.0 to 88.0 Scaled value: 0.81 % area w/pixels <-30 C: Value: 74.0 Range: 17.0 to 100.0 Scaled value: 0.69 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : Value: 20.5 Range: 37.5 to 8.0 Scaled value: 0.58 Scaled RI index= 5.57 Prob of RI= 55.9% is 4.6 times the sample mean(12.1%)