* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES INPUT INCLUDED * INVEST 10/27/05 12 UTC TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 20 21 22 24 26 30 33 36 37 36 36 34 31 V (KT) LAND 20 21 22 24 26 30 33 36 37 36 36 34 31 SHEAR (KTS) 7 4 1 5 10 20 22 22 25 30 31 31 34 SHEAR DIR 52 27 153 230 231 246 257 257 272 275 264 248 250 SST (C) 28.2 28.3 28.3 28.3 28.3 28.1 27.9 27.6 27.3 27.0 26.5 26.3 26.2 POT. INT. (KT) 149 150 150 150 150 148 146 143 140 137 131 129 128 200 MB T (C) -54.4 -54.5 -54.3 -54.1 -54.1 -54.2 -55.4 -55.9 -56.2 -56.3 -56.4 -56.1 -56.3 TH_E DEV (C) 7 7 7 7 7 7 6 7 6 6 6 6 5 500-300 MB RH 20 19 18 18 19 18 25 31 40 37 42 49 57 MO FLX (M/S/D) 0 0 0 0 0 0 6 13 8 -8 -11 5 20 850 MB VORT -22 -25 -19 -13 -16 -7 5 -5 -13 -23 -16 2 12 LAND (KM) 1433 1441 1453 1468 1483 1572 1681 1773 1886 2029 2159 2321 2126 LAT (DEG N) 12.1 12.4 12.7 12.8 12.9 12.7 12.7 13.2 13.8 14.4 14.9 15.3 15.8 LONG(DEG W) 117.4 118.0 118.6 119.0 119.3 120.3 121.9 123.9 126.0 128.3 130.6 133.0 135.1 FORECAST TRACK FROM BAMM STORM HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KTS) 275/ 7 CX,CY: -6/ 1 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB) 508 (MEAN=601) 200 MB DIVERGENCE x10**5 (T=0) -27 (MEAN= 18) T-12 MAXIMUM WIND (KTS) 20 GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 100-300 KM RAD: 26.5 (MEAN=18.0) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 57.0 (MEAN=64.4) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 2. 4. 9. 15. 21. 26. 28. 29. 30. 30. VERTICAL SHEAR 1. 2. 4. 5. 6. 5. 3. 1. -1. -3. -5. -7. PERSISTENCE 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 200 MB TEMP. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 4. 5. 6. 7. 9. 11. 12. THETA_E EXCESS 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -5. -6. -7. -8. -9. -10. 500-300 MB RH 0. -1. -1. -2. -4. -4. -4. -4. -4. -4. -3. -3. 850 MB ENV. VORT. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. -1. -1. -2. -1. -1. -1. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. ---------------------------------------------------------- SUB-TOTAL CHANGE 0. 1. 2. 4. 7. 10. 13. 14. 14. 13. 12. 10. INTENSITY ADJUSTMENTS FROM SATELLITE INPUT 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- MEAN ADJUSTMENT 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES IR STD DEV 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. 5. 4. 3. 3. 3. 2. GOES IR PIXEL COUNT 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL ADJUSTMENT 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE (KT) 1. 2. 4. 6. 10. 13. 16. 17. 16. 16. 14. 11. ** 2005 E. PACIFIC RAPID INTENSITY INDEX ** ( 25 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) INVEST 10/27/05 12 UTC 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): Value: 0.0 Range: -20.0 to 45.0 Scaled value: 0.63 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : Value: 5.2 Range: 17.3 to 1.9 Scaled value: 0.78 SST (C) : Value: 28.3 Range: 26.7 to 30.1 Scaled value: 0.46 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : Value: 130.0 Range: 38.3 to 135.0 Scaled value: 0.95 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): Value: 66.4 Range: 66.0 to 88.0 Scaled value: 0.02 % area w/pixels <-30 C: Value: 53.0 Range: 26.0 to 100.0 Scaled value: 0.36 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : Value: 26.5 Range: 28.9 to 5.9 Scaled value: 0.10 Scaled RI index= 3.31 Prob of RI= 14.9% is 1.2 times the sample mean(12.0%)