* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES/OHC INPUT INCLUDED * BETA 10/27/05 18 UTC TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 50 57 62 67 72 77 83 85 87 87 83 77 71 V (KT) LAND 50 57 62 67 72 77 83 85 87 54 36 30 28 SHEAR (KTS) 9 10 12 12 12 14 10 11 7 8 12 16 19 SHEAR DIR 164 149 150 147 138 138 122 143 121 119 97 133 151 SST (C) 29.6 29.6 29.6 29.5 29.4 29.4 29.3 29.3 29.3 29.2 28.7 28.1 28.0 POT. INT. (KT) 165 165 165 165 164 164 162 162 162 160 152 143 142 200 MB T (C) -53.6 -53.4 -53.7 -54.0 -53.6 -53.6 -53.3 -53.5 -53.6 -53.6 -53.5 -53.4 -53.4 TH_E DEV (C) 7 7 6 6 8 7 8 6 6 6 8 6 8 500-300 MB RH 67 68 67 68 60 58 57 64 63 60 57 58 60 MO FLX (M/S/D) 0 -2 -1 -3 -1 -1 0 1 0 -3 0 4 0 850 MB VORT 66 75 73 74 73 66 74 74 73 69 68 56 45 LAND (KM) 240 251 245 226 208 162 119 75 21 -64 -162 -135 -20 LAT (DEG N) 11.5 11.7 11.9 12.2 12.5 12.9 13.2 13.3 13.3 13.3 13.3 13.0 12.6 LONG(DEG W) 81.4 81.4 81.4 81.5 81.6 82.0 82.4 82.8 83.3 84.1 85.0 86.0 87.1 HEAT CONTENT 54 51 48 42 39 45 47 46 45 9999 9999 9999 9999 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI STORM HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KTS) 350/ 3 CX,CY: 0/ 3 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB) 588 (MEAN=643) 200 MB DIVERGENCE x10**5 (T=0) 51 (MEAN= 23) T-12 MAXIMUM WIND (KTS) 35 GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 100-300 KM RAD: 15.2 (MEAN=20.0) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 95.0 (MEAN=68.9) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 7. 8. 9. 10. 11. 11. 12. SST POTENTIAL 1. 3. 5. 7. 10. 14. 17. 19. 22. 22. 22. 20. VERTICAL SHEAR 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -3. -4. PERSISTENCE 3. 5. 7. 8. 9. 9. 9. 8. 6. 3. 1. 0. 200 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. THETA_E EXCESS 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -4. -5. -7. -8. -10. -12. -14. 500-300 MB RH 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 850 MB ENV. VORT. 0. 1. 2. 2. 3. 5. 6. 8. 9. 10. 10. 10. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -7. -8. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. ---------------------------------------------------------- SUB-TOTAL CHANGE 6. 11. 15. 19. 25. 30. 34. 37. 37. 35. 29. 23. INTENSITY ADJUSTMENTS FROM SATELLITE INPUT 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- MEAN ADJUSTMENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES IR STD DEV 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES IR PIXEL COUNT 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL ADJUSTMENT 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE (KT) 7. 12. 17. 22. 27. 33. 35. 37. 37. 33. 27. 21. ** 2005 ATLANTIC RAPID INTENSITY INDEX ** ( 25 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) BETA 10/27/05 18 UTC 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): Value: 15.0 Range: -20.0 to 25.0 Scaled value: 0.60 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : Value: 11.0 Range: 42.5 to 2.5 Scaled value: 0.79 SST (C) : Value: 29.5 Range: 24.3 to 30.4 Scaled value: 0.86 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : Value: 114.8 Range: 27.1 to 136.4 Scaled value: 0.80 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): Value: 84.0 Range: 57.0 to 88.0 Scaled value: 0.87 % area w/pixels <-30 C: Value: 90.0 Range: 17.0 to 100.0 Scaled value: 0.88 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : Value: 15.2 Range: 37.5 to 8.0 Scaled value: 0.76 Scaled RI index= 5.55 Prob of RI= 55.3% is 4.6 times the sample mean(12.1%)