* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES INPUT INCLUDED * INVEST 10/27/05 18 UTC TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 20 22 23 26 28 31 34 37 38 37 36 35 34 V (KT) LAND 20 22 23 26 28 31 34 37 38 37 36 35 34 SHEAR (KTS) 4 1 4 9 15 21 20 21 29 30 30 33 35 SHEAR DIR 47 168 203 218 235 249 264 278 283 280 266 261 262 SST (C) 28.2 28.3 28.3 28.3 28.2 28.0 27.8 27.7 27.5 27.1 26.5 26.6 26.7 POT. INT. (KT) 149 150 150 150 149 147 145 144 142 138 131 132 133 200 MB T (C) -54.4 -54.3 -54.1 -54.0 -54.0 -54.4 -55.5 -55.7 -55.9 -56.2 -56.3 -56.1 -56.3 TH_E DEV (C) 7 7 7 7 7 7 7 7 6 6 6 6 6 500-300 MB RH 18 18 18 20 17 22 27 37 38 41 47 53 62 MO FLX (M/S/D) 0 0 0 0 -1 0 11 12 -5 -8 -6 16 5 850 MB VORT -25 -23 -15 -21 -16 3 -10 -14 -25 -25 -24 -7 14 LAND (KM) 1457 1460 1464 1493 1521 1644 1783 1898 2042 2237 2416 2149 1900 LAT (DEG N) 12.1 12.3 12.5 12.4 12.3 12.0 12.0 12.4 12.9 13.2 13.7 14.1 14.5 LONG(DEG W) 117.8 118.2 118.5 118.8 119.1 120.5 122.5 124.7 127.1 129.8 132.7 135.4 137.7 FORECAST TRACK FROM BAMM STORM HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KTS) 270/ 6 CX,CY: -5/ 0 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB) 554 (MEAN=601) 200 MB DIVERGENCE x10**5 (T=0) -19 (MEAN= 18) T-12 MAXIMUM WIND (KTS) 20 GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 100-300 KM RAD: 23.9 (MEAN=18.0) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 73.0 (MEAN=64.4) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 2. 4. 9. 15. 21. 26. 28. 29. 30. 30. VERTICAL SHEAR 1. 2. 4. 4. 5. 4. 3. 0. -1. -3. -5. -6. PERSISTENCE 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 200 MB TEMP. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 4. 5. 6. 7. 9. 10. 12. THETA_E EXCESS 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -7. -8. -9. 500-300 MB RH 0. -1. -1. -2. -4. -4. -4. -4. -3. -3. -3. -2. 850 MB ENV. VORT. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. ---------------------------------------------------------- SUB-TOTAL CHANGE 0. 1. 2. 3. 6. 10. 13. 14. 14. 14. 13. 12. INTENSITY ADJUSTMENTS FROM SATELLITE INPUT 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- MEAN ADJUSTMENT 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES IR STD DEV 1. 2. 4. 5. 6. 7. 6. 5. 4. 3. 3. 2. GOES IR PIXEL COUNT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL ADJUSTMENT 1. 3. 4. 4. 5. 5. 4. 3. 3. 2. 2. 1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE (KT) 2. 3. 6. 8. 11. 14. 17. 18. 17. 16. 15. 14. ** 2005 E. PACIFIC RAPID INTENSITY INDEX ** ( 25 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) INVEST 10/27/05 18 UTC 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): Value: 0.0 Range: -20.0 to 45.0 Scaled value: 0.63 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : Value: 6.6 Range: 17.3 to 1.9 Scaled value: 0.69 SST (C) : Value: 28.3 Range: 26.7 to 30.1 Scaled value: 0.46 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : Value: 129.7 Range: 38.3 to 135.0 Scaled value: 0.95 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): Value: 69.0 Range: 66.0 to 88.0 Scaled value: 0.14 % area w/pixels <-30 C: Value: 64.0 Range: 26.0 to 100.0 Scaled value: 0.51 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : Value: 23.9 Range: 28.9 to 5.9 Scaled value: 0.22 Scaled RI index= 3.60 Prob of RI= 20.1% is 1.7 times the sample mean(12.0%)