* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES/OHC INPUT INCLUDED * BETA 10/28/05 00 UTC TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 55 60 65 69 73 80 85 89 90 90 86 80 74 V (KT) LAND 55 60 65 69 73 80 85 89 64 40 31 28 27 SHEAR (KTS) 9 10 10 11 13 7 11 8 12 9 15 13 22 SHEAR DIR 138 140 131 120 124 133 109 109 103 99 118 154 155 SST (C) 29.6 29.5 29.4 29.4 29.3 29.3 29.3 29.3 29.2 29.0 28.6 28.2 28.0 POT. INT. (KT) 165 165 164 164 162 162 162 162 160 157 151 145 142 200 MB T (C) -53.3 -53.6 -53.9 -53.3 -53.2 -53.6 -53.0 -53.6 -53.2 -53.8 -53.5 -53.9 -53.9 TH_E DEV (C) 7 6 6 8 8 7 7 6 6 5 7 6 8 500-300 MB RH 69 64 64 59 58 60 57 58 62 60 53 54 50 MO FLX (M/S/D) 0 0 -1 0 -5 -3 -5 -2 -1 -3 3 6 -3 850 MB VORT 76 71 77 82 78 75 72 78 77 69 69 56 45 LAND (KM) 232 225 219 205 194 140 86 32 -32 -108 -205 -137 -14 LAT (DEG N) 12.0 12.3 12.5 12.8 13.0 13.3 13.5 13.6 13.6 13.6 13.6 13.4 12.9 LONG(DEG W) 81.5 81.5 81.5 81.6 81.7 82.2 82.7 83.2 83.8 84.5 85.4 86.4 87.5 HEAT CONTENT 45 41 37 38 40 44 42 37 9999 9999 9999 9999 10 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI STORM HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KTS) 350/ 3 CX,CY: 0/ 3 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB) 561 (MEAN=643) 200 MB DIVERGENCE x10**5 (T=0) 74 (MEAN= 23) T-12 MAXIMUM WIND (KTS) 45 GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 100-300 KM RAD: 16.8 (MEAN=20.0) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 84.0 (MEAN=68.9) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 7. 8. 9. 10. 11. 11. 12. SST POTENTIAL 1. 3. 5. 7. 11. 14. 16. 18. 20. 20. 19. 17. VERTICAL SHEAR 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. 0. 1. 0. 0. -1. -2. -4. PERSISTENCE 2. 3. 4. 4. 5. 5. 5. 4. 3. 2. 1. 0. 200 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. THETA_E EXCESS 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -4. -5. -7. -8. -10. -12. -13. 500-300 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 850 MB ENV. VORT. 0. 1. 2. 2. 4. 5. 7. 9. 10. 11. 11. 11. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -7. -8. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 2. ---------------------------------------------------------- SUB-TOTAL CHANGE 5. 9. 13. 17. 24. 29. 34. 35. 36. 32. 27. 20. INTENSITY ADJUSTMENTS FROM SATELLITE INPUT 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- MEAN ADJUSTMENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES IR STD DEV 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES IR PIXEL COUNT 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL ADJUSTMENT 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE (KT) 5. 10. 14. 18. 25. 30. 34. 35. 35. 31. 25. 19. ** 2005 ATLANTIC RAPID INTENSITY INDEX ** ( 25 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) BETA 10/28/05 00 UTC 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): Value: 10.0 Range: -20.0 to 25.0 Scaled value: 0.90 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : Value: 10.7 Range: 42.5 to 2.5 Scaled value: 0.79 SST (C) : Value: 29.4 Range: 24.3 to 30.4 Scaled value: 0.84 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : Value: 108.9 Range: 27.1 to 136.4 Scaled value: 0.75 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): Value: 82.6 Range: 57.0 to 88.0 Scaled value: 0.83 % area w/pixels <-30 C: Value: 73.0 Range: 17.0 to 100.0 Scaled value: 0.67 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : Value: 16.8 Range: 37.5 to 8.0 Scaled value: 0.70 Scaled RI index= 5.49 Prob of RI= 53.0% is 4.4 times the sample mean(12.1%)