* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES INPUT INCLUDED * INVEST 10/28/05 00 UTC TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 20 21 23 24 26 30 34 37 38 38 38 37 34 V (KT) LAND 20 21 23 24 26 30 34 37 38 38 38 37 34 SHEAR (KTS) 4 4 8 12 16 17 16 19 23 25 24 24 29 SHEAR DIR 144 201 223 237 241 248 261 269 269 263 257 257 232 SST (C) 28.2 28.2 28.2 28.2 28.1 27.9 27.7 27.5 27.3 26.7 26.4 26.3 26.3 POT. INT. (KT) 149 149 149 149 148 146 144 142 140 133 130 129 129 200 MB T (C) -54.4 -54.2 -54.1 -54.1 -54.0 -54.8 -55.1 -55.8 -55.7 -56.2 -55.7 -56.2 -56.3 TH_E DEV (C) 7 7 7 7 7 6 7 6 6 6 6 5 5 500-300 MB RH 24 25 25 25 26 34 41 48 48 53 53 58 64 MO FLX (M/S/D) 2 1 2 3 5 5 17 11 13 -3 4 19 17 850 MB VORT -8 1 0 1 1 5 -7 -13 -17 -13 0 8 33 LAND (KM) 1448 1470 1494 1541 1590 1710 1818 1924 2066 2206 2357 2146 1955 LAT (DEG N) 12.0 12.1 12.1 12.0 11.9 12.1 12.5 13.1 13.7 14.2 14.7 15.1 15.6 LONG(DEG W) 117.5 118.0 118.4 119.0 119.6 121.5 123.7 125.8 128.1 130.5 132.9 135.1 136.8 FORECAST TRACK FROM BAMM STORM HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KTS) 265/ 3 CX,CY: -2/ 0 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB) 577 (MEAN=601) 200 MB DIVERGENCE x10**5 (T=0) -1 (MEAN= 18) T-12 MAXIMUM WIND (KTS) 20 GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 100-300 KM RAD: 20.4 (MEAN=18.0) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 49.0 (MEAN=64.4) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 2. 4. 9. 15. 21. 25. 27. 29. 29. 29. VERTICAL SHEAR 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 4. 3. 2. 0. -1. -2. -4. PERSISTENCE 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 200 MB TEMP. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 4. 5. 6. 7. 8. 10. 12. THETA_E EXCESS 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -7. -8. -9. -10. 500-300 MB RH 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. 850 MB ENV. VORT. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -5. -5. -5. -5. -5. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. ---------------------------------------------------------- SUB-TOTAL CHANGE 0. 1. 2. 3. 6. 9. 13. 14. 14. 14. 13. 13. INTENSITY ADJUSTMENTS FROM SATELLITE INPUT 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- MEAN ADJUSTMENT 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES IR STD DEV 1. 3. 4. 5. 7. 7. 7. 5. 4. 3. 3. 3. GOES IR PIXEL COUNT 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 1. 2. 1. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL ADJUSTMENT 1. 2. 2. 3. 4. 5. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. 2. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE (KT) 1. 3. 4. 6. 10. 14. 17. 18. 18. 18. 17. 14. ** 2005 E. PACIFIC RAPID INTENSITY INDEX ** ( 25 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) INVEST 10/28/05 00 UTC 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): Value: 0.0 Range: -20.0 to 45.0 Scaled value: 0.63 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : Value: 8.8 Range: 17.3 to 1.9 Scaled value: 0.55 SST (C) : Value: 28.2 Range: 26.7 to 30.1 Scaled value: 0.44 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : Value: 128.9 Range: 38.3 to 135.0 Scaled value: 0.94 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): Value: 71.2 Range: 66.0 to 88.0 Scaled value: 0.24 % area w/pixels <-30 C: Value: 37.0 Range: 26.0 to 100.0 Scaled value: 0.15 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : Value: 20.4 Range: 28.9 to 5.9 Scaled value: 0.37 Scaled RI index= 3.31 Prob of RI= 14.9% is 1.2 times the sample mean(12.0%)