* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES/OHC INPUT INCLUDED * BETA 10/28/05 06 UTC TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 55 59 62 65 68 75 80 84 86 87 83 80 75 V (KT) LAND 55 59 62 65 68 75 67 43 32 28 27 27 27 SHEAR (KTS) 10 10 12 15 12 6 11 10 10 8 12 11 17 SHEAR DIR 142 122 109 127 151 138 134 124 137 123 152 143 170 SST (C) 29.5 29.5 29.4 29.4 29.3 29.3 29.3 29.1 28.7 28.4 28.1 28.1 28.1 POT. INT. (KT) 165 165 164 164 162 162 162 159 152 148 143 143 143 200 MB T (C) -53.4 -53.8 -53.3 -53.2 -53.5 -53.2 -53.5 -53.5 -53.6 -53.6 -53.5 -53.5 -53.7 TH_E DEV (C) 6 6 8 7 7 8 6 6 4 6 5 7 7 500-300 MB RH 67 65 63 58 60 57 53 60 63 56 54 56 59 MO FLX (M/S/D) 0 0 -2 -3 -2 0 -2 0 1 0 0 3 4 850 MB VORT 82 81 85 83 80 83 89 93 100 80 84 68 63 LAND (KM) 258 248 239 216 194 86 -10 -86 -162 -197 -113 -83 -77 LAT (DEG N) 12.2 12.4 12.6 12.9 13.2 13.4 13.2 13.3 13.4 13.5 13.2 13.3 13.5 LONG(DEG W) 81.2 81.3 81.3 81.5 81.7 82.7 83.6 84.3 85.0 85.7 86.5 87.0 87.3 HEAT CONTENT 44 40 38 37 38 44 46 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI STORM HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KTS) 0/ 3 CX,CY: 0/ 3 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB) 562 (MEAN=643) 200 MB DIVERGENCE x10**5 (T=0) 60 (MEAN= 23) T-12 MAXIMUM WIND (KTS) 50 GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 100-300 KM RAD: 20.0 (MEAN=20.0) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 84.0 (MEAN=68.9) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 7. 8. 9. 10. 11. 11. 12. SST POTENTIAL 1. 3. 5. 7. 10. 14. 16. 17. 18. 18. 17. 15. VERTICAL SHEAR 0. 0. -1. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. -1. 0. -2. PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. 0. 200 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 3. THETA_E EXCESS 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -7. -9. -11. -13. -15. 500-300 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 3. 850 MB ENV. VORT. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 10. 12. 13. 14. 14. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -7. -8. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 2. 2. 2. ---------------------------------------------------------- SUB-TOTAL CHANGE 3. 7. 10. 13. 20. 25. 29. 32. 33. 30. 27. 21. INTENSITY ADJUSTMENTS FROM SATELLITE INPUT 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- MEAN ADJUSTMENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES IR STD DEV 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES IR PIXEL COUNT 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL ADJUSTMENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE (KT) 4. 7. 10. 13. 20. 25. 29. 31. 32. 28. 25. 20. ** 2005 ATLANTIC RAPID INTENSITY INDEX ** ( 25 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) BETA 10/28/05 06 UTC 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): Value: 5.0 Range: -20.0 to 25.0 Scaled value: 0.88 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : Value: 11.9 Range: 42.5 to 2.5 Scaled value: 0.77 SST (C) : Value: 29.4 Range: 24.3 to 30.4 Scaled value: 0.84 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : Value: 108.9 Range: 27.1 to 136.4 Scaled value: 0.75 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): Value: 84.0 Range: 57.0 to 88.0 Scaled value: 0.87 % area w/pixels <-30 C: Value: 75.0 Range: 17.0 to 100.0 Scaled value: 0.70 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : Value: 20.0 Range: 37.5 to 8.0 Scaled value: 0.59 Scaled RI index= 5.40 Prob of RI= 50.1% is 4.1 times the sample mean(12.1%)