* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES/OHC INPUT INCLUDED * BETA 10/28/05 12 UTC TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 55 58 60 63 67 73 78 83 87 88 86 82 76 V (KT) LAND 55 58 60 63 67 73 64 42 32 28 27 27 27 SHEAR (KTS) 10 10 16 13 6 11 6 8 4 10 11 17 20 SHEAR DIR 134 120 132 147 150 117 129 125 150 158 210 200 208 SST (C) 29.4 29.3 29.3 29.2 29.2 29.2 29.1 29.1 28.9 28.8 28.7 28.8 28.9 POT. INT. (KT) 164 162 162 160 160 160 159 159 155 154 152 154 155 200 MB T (C) -53.6 -53.2 -53.0 -53.4 -53.4 -52.7 -53.4 -52.9 -53.8 -53.4 -53.8 -53.8 -54.1 TH_E DEV (C) 6 8 7 7 6 7 5 5 3 5 5 8 6 500-300 MB RH 66 63 60 58 56 53 50 57 59 57 59 58 58 MO FLX (M/S/D) 0 -1 -3 -1 -1 -6 0 -1 0 0 0 0 0 850 MB VORT 81 86 84 83 83 90 85 94 83 76 56 36 0 LAND (KM) 249 238 218 177 136 65 -21 -98 -130 -109 -90 -80 -35 LAT (DEG N) 12.7 13.0 13.3 13.6 13.8 14.1 14.4 14.6 14.7 14.8 14.9 15.1 15.3 LONG(DEG W) 81.2 81.3 81.4 81.7 82.0 82.6 83.4 84.3 85.2 86.0 86.7 87.4 88.3 HEAT CONTENT 37 36 33 36 49 30 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI STORM HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KTS) 0/ 4 CX,CY: 0/ 4 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB) 558 (MEAN=643) 200 MB DIVERGENCE x10**5 (T=0) 77 (MEAN= 23) T-12 MAXIMUM WIND (KTS) 55 GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 100-300 KM RAD: 19.8 (MEAN=20.0) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 87.0 (MEAN=68.9) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 7. 8. 9. 10. 11. 11. 12. SST POTENTIAL 1. 3. 5. 7. 10. 13. 15. 17. 18. 18. 18. 17. VERTICAL SHEAR 0. -1. -1. -1. 0. 1. 3. 5. 5. 4. 3. 1. PERSISTENCE 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 200 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. THETA_E EXCESS 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -8. -10. -12. -14. -15. 500-300 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 850 MB ENV. VORT. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 10. 12. 12. 12. 11. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -7. -8. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 2. ---------------------------------------------------------- SUB-TOTAL CHANGE 2. 5. 7. 11. 17. 23. 28. 32. 34. 32. 29. 22. INTENSITY ADJUSTMENTS FROM SATELLITE INPUT 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- MEAN ADJUSTMENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES IR STD DEV 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES IR PIXEL COUNT 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL ADJUSTMENT 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE (KT) 3. 5. 8. 12. 18. 23. 28. 32. 33. 31. 27. 21. ** 2005 ATLANTIC RAPID INTENSITY INDEX ** ( 25 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) BETA 10/28/05 12 UTC 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): Value: 0.0 Range: -20.0 to 25.0 Scaled value: 0.71 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : Value: 10.8 Range: 42.5 to 2.5 Scaled value: 0.79 SST (C) : Value: 29.3 Range: 24.3 to 30.4 Scaled value: 0.82 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : Value: 106.7 Range: 27.1 to 136.4 Scaled value: 0.73 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): Value: 83.6 Range: 57.0 to 88.0 Scaled value: 0.86 % area w/pixels <-30 C: Value: 80.0 Range: 17.0 to 100.0 Scaled value: 0.76 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : Value: 19.8 Range: 37.5 to 8.0 Scaled value: 0.60 Scaled RI index= 5.26 Prob of RI= 45.5% is 3.8 times the sample mean(12.1%)