* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES/OHC INPUT INCLUDED * BETA 10/28/05 18 UTC TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 55 57 60 63 67 72 77 81 83 84 84 79 72 V (KT) LAND 55 57 60 63 67 72 48 34 29 28 27 27 27 SHEAR (KTS) 9 14 12 8 7 13 8 7 8 11 8 20 19 SHEAR DIR 117 120 128 113 107 110 108 135 110 164 189 197 214 SST (C) 29.3 29.2 29.1 29.1 29.1 29.1 29.1 29.0 28.9 28.8 28.8 29.0 29.2 POT. INT. (KT) 162 160 159 159 159 159 159 157 155 154 154 157 160 200 MB T (C) -53.2 -52.9 -53.1 -53.2 -52.7 -53.0 -52.8 -53.4 -53.3 -53.5 -53.7 -53.7 -53.7 TH_E DEV (C) 7 7 7 6 8 6 5 4 5 5 7 6 7 500-300 MB RH 66 63 65 63 59 58 57 56 60 58 59 54 43 MO FLX (M/S/D) 0 -6 -2 -1 -1 -2 -1 -2 -1 1 3 1 0 850 MB VORT 81 83 89 95 98 100 100 98 69 71 57 23 3 LAND (KM) 257 226 199 157 118 21 -58 -87 -90 -80 -66 -24 -9 LAT (DEG N) 13.1 13.5 13.8 14.0 14.2 14.5 14.9 15.1 15.0 15.0 15.2 15.4 15.8 LONG(DEG W) 81.1 81.3 81.4 81.8 82.1 83.0 84.1 85.1 85.8 86.6 87.3 88.1 88.8 HEAT CONTENT 34 32 31 44 48 14 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 81 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI STORM HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KTS) 0/ 4 CX,CY: 0/ 4 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB) 578 (MEAN=643) 200 MB DIVERGENCE x10**5 (T=0) 86 (MEAN= 23) T-12 MAXIMUM WIND (KTS) 55 GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 100-300 KM RAD: 22.3 (MEAN=20.0) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 87.0 (MEAN=68.9) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 7. 8. 9. 10. 11. 11. 12. SST POTENTIAL 1. 3. 5. 6. 10. 12. 14. 16. 17. 18. 18. 17. VERTICAL SHEAR 0. -1. -1. 0. -1. 0. 1. 2. 2. 3. 1. -1. PERSISTENCE 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 200 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. THETA_E EXCESS 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -6. -8. -10. -12. -14. -16. 500-300 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 850 MB ENV. VORT. 1. 1. 2. 3. 5. 7. 10. 11. 13. 13. 13. 12. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -7. -8. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 3. 2. 3. 3. 3. ---------------------------------------------------------- SUB-TOTAL CHANGE 2. 5. 8. 12. 17. 22. 26. 29. 31. 31. 26. 19. INTENSITY ADJUSTMENTS FROM SATELLITE INPUT 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- MEAN ADJUSTMENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES IR STD DEV 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES IR PIXEL COUNT 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL ADJUSTMENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE (KT) 2. 5. 8. 12. 17. 22. 26. 28. 29. 29. 24. 18. ** 2005 ATLANTIC RAPID INTENSITY INDEX ** ( 25 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) BETA 10/28/05 18 UTC 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): Value: 0.0 Range: -20.0 to 25.0 Scaled value: 0.71 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : Value: 10.1 Range: 42.5 to 2.5 Scaled value: 0.81 SST (C) : Value: 29.2 Range: 24.3 to 30.4 Scaled value: 0.80 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : Value: 104.6 Range: 27.1 to 136.4 Scaled value: 0.71 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): Value: 83.2 Range: 57.0 to 88.0 Scaled value: 0.85 % area w/pixels <-30 C: Value: 80.0 Range: 17.0 to 100.0 Scaled value: 0.76 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : Value: 22.3 Range: 37.5 to 8.0 Scaled value: 0.52 Scaled RI index= 5.14 Prob of RI= 41.5% is 3.4 times the sample mean(12.1%)