* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES/OHC INPUT INCLUDED * BETA 10/29/05 00 UTC TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 55 57 60 64 67 74 79 84 87 87 83 74 64 V (KT) LAND 55 57 60 64 67 56 38 30 28 27 27 27 27 SHEAR (KTS) 14 11 9 6 9 6 7 5 8 12 19 26 29 SHEAR DIR 136 131 122 133 119 110 109 159 136 173 176 197 201 SST (C) 29.2 29.2 29.1 29.1 29.1 29.1 29.0 28.9 28.7 28.7 28.7 29.0 29.1 POT. INT. (KT) 160 160 159 159 159 159 157 155 152 152 152 157 159 200 MB T (C) -52.8 -53.1 -53.3 -52.8 -52.7 -53.3 -52.7 -53.7 -53.3 -54.0 -53.7 -53.7 -53.7 TH_E DEV (C) 8 7 6 8 7 4 5 3 7 5 7 4 4 500-300 MB RH 66 66 63 57 54 54 56 55 54 53 48 43 35 MO FLX (M/S/D) -4 -2 -1 -1 -3 -3 -4 -1 0 0 4 0 0 850 MB VORT 78 81 85 88 92 90 86 68 61 47 16 -10 -18 LAND (KM) 223 191 163 113 64 -32 -100 -103 -91 -97 -88 -64 -101 LAT (DEG N) 13.4 13.7 14.0 14.2 14.4 14.6 14.8 14.9 14.9 14.9 14.9 15.5 16.3 LONG(DEG W) 81.3 81.5 81.7 82.2 82.6 83.5 84.6 85.6 86.6 87.6 88.6 89.3 89.9 HEAT CONTENT 32 32 41 45 18 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI STORM HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KTS) 350/ 4 CX,CY: 0/ 4 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB) 522 (MEAN=643) 200 MB DIVERGENCE x10**5 (T=0) 86 (MEAN= 23) T-12 MAXIMUM WIND (KTS) 55 GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 100-300 KM RAD: 21.3 (MEAN=20.0) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 78.0 (MEAN=68.9) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 7. 8. 9. 10. 11. 11. 12. SST POTENTIAL 1. 3. 5. 6. 9. 12. 14. 15. 17. 17. 17. 16. VERTICAL SHEAR 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 3. 5. 7. 6. 4. -1. -4. PERSISTENCE 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 200 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. THETA_E EXCESS 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -6. -8. -10. -12. -14. -17. 500-300 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 850 MB ENV. VORT. 0. 1. 2. 3. 5. 6. 8. 9. 10. 10. 9. 8. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 3. 2. 2. 1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -7. -8. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 3. 2. 3. 3. 3. ---------------------------------------------------------- SUB-TOTAL CHANGE 2. 5. 9. 12. 19. 25. 29. 33. 33. 29. 21. 11. INTENSITY ADJUSTMENTS FROM SATELLITE INPUT 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- MEAN ADJUSTMENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES IR STD DEV 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES IR PIXEL COUNT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL ADJUSTMENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE (KT) 2. 5. 9. 12. 19. 24. 29. 32. 32. 28. 19. 9. ** 2005 ATLANTIC RAPID INTENSITY INDEX ** ( 25 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) BETA 10/29/05 00 UTC 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): Value: 0.0 Range: -20.0 to 25.0 Scaled value: 0.71 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : Value: 9.5 Range: 42.5 to 2.5 Scaled value: 0.82 SST (C) : Value: 29.1 Range: 24.3 to 30.4 Scaled value: 0.79 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : Value: 104.3 Range: 27.1 to 136.4 Scaled value: 0.71 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): Value: 82.6 Range: 57.0 to 88.0 Scaled value: 0.83 % area w/pixels <-30 C: Value: 73.0 Range: 17.0 to 100.0 Scaled value: 0.67 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : Value: 21.3 Range: 37.5 to 8.0 Scaled value: 0.55 Scaled RI index= 5.08 Prob of RI= 39.4% is 3.3 times the sample mean(12.1%)