* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES/OHC INPUT INCLUDED * BETA 10/29/05 06 UTC TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 70 75 80 84 88 94 98 101 99 95 84 72 60 V (KT) LAND 70 75 80 84 88 59 37 30 28 27 27 27 27 SHEAR (KTS) 14 9 9 10 10 6 7 7 13 13 23 24 30 SHEAR DIR 144 137 138 132 133 122 148 153 172 182 183 190 200 SST (C) 29.2 29.1 29.1 29.1 29.1 29.1 29.0 28.7 28.4 28.3 28.5 28.6 28.7 POT. INT. (KT) 160 159 159 159 159 159 157 152 148 146 149 151 152 200 MB T (C) -52.9 -53.2 -52.8 -52.8 -53.1 -53.0 -53.3 -53.2 -53.5 -53.7 -53.5 -53.4 -53.6 TH_E DEV (C) 7 6 8 7 6 5 4 6 5 7 5 5 2 500-300 MB RH 66 62 56 54 56 59 56 56 49 50 47 39 37 MO FLX (M/S/D) -1 -2 -3 -3 -1 0 0 0 0 1 1 0 0 850 MB VORT 83 91 93 97 92 81 95 76 69 46 3 -14 -40 LAND (KM) 195 159 129 80 32 -61 -146 -144 -155 -133 -138 -120 -126 LAT (DEG N) 13.6 13.9 14.2 14.4 14.5 14.3 14.5 14.5 14.3 14.3 14.5 14.7 15.1 LONG(DEG W) 81.5 81.8 82.0 82.5 82.9 83.9 84.9 85.9 86.9 87.9 88.8 89.6 90.2 HEAT CONTENT 32 43 52 24 14 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI STORM HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KTS) 335/ 3 CX,CY: 0/ 3 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB) 517 (MEAN=643) 200 MB DIVERGENCE x10**5 (T=0) 49 (MEAN= 23) T-12 MAXIMUM WIND (KTS) 55 GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 100-300 KM RAD: 16.8 (MEAN=20.0) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 97.0 (MEAN=68.9) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 7. 8. 9. 10. 11. 11. 12. SST POTENTIAL 1. 3. 5. 7. 10. 11. 11. 11. 10. 9. 7. 4. VERTICAL SHEAR -1. -1. -2. -2. -1. 0. 3. 2. 1. -2. -6. -9. PERSISTENCE 3. 4. 5. 6. 6. 6. 6. 5. 4. 3. 1. 0. 200 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. THETA_E EXCESS 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -5. -6. -8. -10. -12. -15. -17. 500-300 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 1. 850 MB ENV. VORT. 1. 1. 2. 3. 5. 7. 9. 10. 11. 10. 9. 7. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 2. 2. 2. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -7. -8. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. ---------------------------------------------------------- SUB-TOTAL CHANGE 5. 10. 13. 17. 23. 28. 31. 29. 26. 16. 4. -9. INTENSITY ADJUSTMENTS FROM SATELLITE INPUT 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- MEAN ADJUSTMENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES IR STD DEV 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES IR PIXEL COUNT 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL ADJUSTMENT 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE (KT) 5. 10. 14. 18. 24. 28. 31. 29. 25. 14. 2. -10. ** 2005 ATLANTIC RAPID INTENSITY INDEX ** ( 25 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) BETA 10/29/05 06 UTC 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): Value: 15.0 Range: -20.0 to 25.0 Scaled value: 0.60 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : Value: 10.2 Range: 42.5 to 2.5 Scaled value: 0.81 SST (C) : Value: 29.1 Range: 24.3 to 30.4 Scaled value: 0.79 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : Value: 89.0 Range: 27.1 to 136.4 Scaled value: 0.57 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): Value: 83.8 Range: 57.0 to 88.0 Scaled value: 0.86 % area w/pixels <-30 C: Value: 92.0 Range: 17.0 to 100.0 Scaled value: 0.90 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : Value: 16.8 Range: 37.5 to 8.0 Scaled value: 0.70 Scaled RI index= 5.23 Prob of RI= 44.5% is 3.7 times the sample mean(12.1%)