* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES/OHC INPUT INCLUDED * BETA 10/29/05 12 UTC TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 75 80 85 89 94 100 104 105 101 95 83 69 57 V (KT) LAND 75 80 85 89 79 49 34 29 27 27 27 27 27 SHEAR (KTS) 6 4 8 9 4 6 4 11 12 18 25 30 25 SHEAR DIR 156 129 127 153 142 131 157 149 183 180 190 187 200 SST (C) 29.1 29.1 29.1 29.2 29.2 29.1 28.8 28.5 28.4 28.4 28.5 28.5 28.5 POT. INT. (KT) 159 159 159 160 160 159 154 149 148 148 149 149 149 200 MB T (C) -53.0 -52.7 -52.7 -53.0 -53.4 -52.7 -53.4 -53.3 -54.0 -53.6 -53.7 -53.7 -53.7 TH_E DEV (C) 6 7 7 6 5 5 3 6 5 7 4 4 1 500-300 MB RH 66 59 55 54 55 54 54 50 52 48 48 39 35 MO FLX (M/S/D) 0 -2 -5 0 0 -2 0 0 0 2 -1 0 3 850 MB VORT 91 92 91 81 74 81 83 68 43 19 -9 -23 -28 LAND (KM) 178 132 86 38 -7 -87 -184 -172 -153 -133 -117 -64 -80 LAT (DEG N) 13.8 14.0 14.1 14.2 14.2 14.3 14.2 14.2 14.3 14.3 14.4 14.5 14.8 LONG(DEG W) 81.6 82.0 82.4 82.9 83.3 84.2 85.3 86.3 87.2 88.1 89.2 90.2 91.3 HEAT CONTENT 35 57 39 24 20 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI STORM HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KTS) 325/ 3 CX,CY: -1/ 2 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB) 531 (MEAN=643) 200 MB DIVERGENCE x10**5 (T=0) 50 (MEAN= 23) T-12 MAXIMUM WIND (KTS) 65 GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 100-300 KM RAD: 14.2 (MEAN=20.0) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 99.0 (MEAN=68.9) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 7. 8. 9. 10. 11. 11. 12. SST POTENTIAL 1. 3. 5. 7. 10. 11. 10. 9. 8. 6. 3. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR 0. 1. 0. 1. 3. 6. 7. 6. 3. -2. -7. -10. PERSISTENCE 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 2. 1. 0. 0. 200 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. THETA_E EXCESS 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -5. -6. -9. -10. -12. -15. -18. 500-300 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 850 MB ENV. VORT. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 9. 8. 7. 5. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 2. 2. 1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -7. -8. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. ---------------------------------------------------------- SUB-TOTAL CHANGE 5. 9. 13. 17. 24. 28. 29. 26. 21. 9. -4. -17. INTENSITY ADJUSTMENTS FROM SATELLITE INPUT 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- MEAN ADJUSTMENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES IR STD DEV 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES IR PIXEL COUNT 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL ADJUSTMENT 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. -2. -1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE (KT) 5. 10. 14. 19. 25. 29. 30. 26. 20. 8. -6. -18. ** 2005 ATLANTIC RAPID INTENSITY INDEX ** ( 25 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) BETA 10/29/05 12 UTC 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): Value: 10.0 Range: -20.0 to 25.0 Scaled value: 0.90 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : Value: 6.1 Range: 42.5 to 2.5 Scaled value: 0.91 SST (C) : Value: 29.1 Range: 24.3 to 30.4 Scaled value: 0.79 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : Value: 84.3 Range: 27.1 to 136.4 Scaled value: 0.52 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): Value: 83.6 Range: 57.0 to 88.0 Scaled value: 0.86 % area w/pixels <-30 C: Value: 98.0 Range: 17.0 to 100.0 Scaled value: 0.98 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : Value: 14.2 Range: 37.5 to 8.0 Scaled value: 0.79 Scaled RI index= 5.75 Prob of RI= 61.8% is 5.1 times the sample mean(12.1%)