* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES INPUT INCLUDED * INVEST 10/29/05 12 UTC TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 25 28 30 33 36 39 40 39 36 34 32 29 25 V (KT) LAND 25 28 30 33 36 39 40 39 36 34 32 29 25 SHEAR (KTS) 16 18 20 28 31 36 40 39 44 40 42 39 49 SHEAR DIR 253 258 270 280 283 281 282 282 281 283 291 285 258 SST (C) 27.8 27.7 27.7 27.7 27.6 27.2 26.7 26.6 26.8 26.9 26.9 26.8 26.4 POT. INT. (KT) 145 144 144 144 143 139 133 132 135 136 136 135 130 200 MB T (C) -55.1 -55.1 -54.7 -54.5 -54.8 -54.4 -55.1 -55.1 -55.0 -55.1 -55.5 -55.7 -56.3 TH_E DEV (C) 5 5 6 6 6 6 6 6 5 6 6 5 5 500-300 MB RH 37 39 44 48 48 51 58 55 55 50 45 49 63 MO FLX (M/S/D) 6 9 18 37 31 -66 5 -35 -3 7 -16 -5 0 850 MB VORT 18 13 -2 -14 -29 -30 -27 -28 -10 4 11 12 17 LAND (KM) 1914 1968 2027 2084 2144 2293 2424 2311 2137 1983 1903 1830 1749 LAT (DEG N) 11.4 11.7 11.9 12.2 12.4 12.7 12.9 13.3 13.6 13.9 13.9 14.2 15.3 LONG(DEG W) 123.7 124.8 125.9 126.9 127.9 130.0 132.0 134.1 135.7 137.1 137.9 138.5 138.9 FORECAST TRACK FROM BAMM STORM HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KTS) 270/ 14 CX,CY: -13/ 0 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB) 749 (MEAN=601) 200 MB DIVERGENCE x10**5 (T=0) 48 (MEAN= 18) T-12 MAXIMUM WIND (KTS) 20 GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 100-300 KM RAD: 26.3 (MEAN=18.0) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 53.0 (MEAN=64.4) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 2. 4. 8. 12. 16. 19. 21. 23. 24. 24. VERTICAL SHEAR 1. 1. 1. 1. -3. -7. -13. -18. -21. -22. -24. -26. PERSISTENCE 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 2. 2. 2. 1. 200 MB TEMP. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. 7. 8. 10. 11. THETA_E EXCESS 0. -1. -2. -2. -4. -5. -6. -8. -9. -10. -11. -12. 500-300 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 850 MB ENV. VORT. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 1. 2. 2. 4. 5. 6. 6. 6. 6. 6. 5. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 3. 4. 5. 6. 5. 5. 5. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. ---------------------------------------------------------- SUB-TOTAL CHANGE 2. 5. 8. 10. 12. 14. 13. 10. 7. 5. 2. 0. INTENSITY ADJUSTMENTS FROM SATELLITE INPUT 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- MEAN ADJUSTMENT 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES IR STD DEV 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 4. 3. 3. 2. 2. 2. GOES IR PIXEL COUNT 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL ADJUSTMENT 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE (KT) 3. 5. 8. 11. 14. 15. 14. 11. 9. 7. 4. 0. ** 2005 E. PACIFIC RAPID INTENSITY INDEX ** ( 25 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) INVEST 10/29/05 12 UTC 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): Value: 5.0 Range: -20.0 to 45.0 Scaled value: 0.79 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : Value: 22.7 Range: 17.3 to 1.9 Scaled value: 0.00 SST (C) : Value: 27.7 Range: 26.7 to 30.1 Scaled value: 0.29 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : Value: 118.9 Range: 38.3 to 135.0 Scaled value: 0.83 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): Value: 75.8 Range: 66.0 to 88.0 Scaled value: 0.45 % area w/pixels <-30 C: Value: 49.0 Range: 26.0 to 100.0 Scaled value: 0.31 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : Value: 26.3 Range: 28.9 to 5.9 Scaled value: 0.11 Scaled RI index= 2.78 Prob of RI= 5.2% is 0.4 times the sample mean(12.0%)