* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES/OHC INPUT INCLUDED * BETA 10/29/05 18 UTC TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 75 79 83 87 92 98 101 99 95 89 80 68 60 V (KT) LAND 75 79 83 73 58 37 30 28 27 27 27 27 27 SHEAR (KTS) 6 9 10 5 2 5 6 15 14 19 19 24 16 SHEAR DIR 137 137 162 170 192 164 135 165 184 185 186 190 200 SST (C) 29.2 29.2 29.2 29.2 29.2 28.8 28.4 28.3 28.3 28.4 28.4 28.5 28.5 POT. INT. (KT) 160 160 160 160 160 154 148 146 146 148 148 149 149 200 MB T (C) -53.0 -52.8 -53.1 -53.2 -52.7 -53.2 -53.3 -53.5 -53.7 -53.7 -53.8 -53.9 -53.7 TH_E DEV (C) 7 8 6 6 6 5 5 4 6 4 5 2 3 500-300 MB RH 64 59 53 54 55 48 50 50 51 47 42 39 32 MO FLX (M/S/D) 0 -4 0 0 0 0 -1 0 0 0 0 1 0 850 MB VORT 90 94 87 86 79 87 80 66 36 20 -5 -28 -15 LAND (KM) 126 80 34 -11 -54 -173 -171 -138 -133 -133 -75 -33 -47 LAT (DEG N) 13.8 14.0 14.1 14.2 14.2 14.1 14.2 14.2 14.3 14.3 14.2 14.3 14.6 LONG(DEG W) 82.1 82.5 82.9 83.4 83.9 85.1 86.4 87.3 87.9 88.6 89.6 90.5 91.6 HEAT CONTENT 51 41 24 21 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI STORM HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KTS) 290/ 4 CX,CY: -3/ 1 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB) 545 (MEAN=643) 200 MB DIVERGENCE x10**5 (T=0) 62 (MEAN= 23) T-12 MAXIMUM WIND (KTS) 70 GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 100-300 KM RAD: 15.3 (MEAN=20.0) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 97.0 (MEAN=68.9) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 7. 8. 9. 10. 11. 11. 12. SST POTENTIAL 2. 4. 6. 8. 10. 11. 10. 8. 7. 5. 3. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR 0. 0. 0. 1. 3. 5. 4. 2. 0. -3. -7. -7. PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 200 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. THETA_E EXCESS 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -5. -6. -8. -10. -13. -16. -19. 500-300 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 850 MB ENV. VORT. 1. 1. 2. 3. 5. 6. 8. 9. 9. 8. 6. 5. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -7. -8. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 2. 1. 2. 2. 2. ---------------------------------------------------------- SUB-TOTAL CHANGE 4. 7. 11. 16. 22. 26. 24. 21. 15. 6. -5. -14. INTENSITY ADJUSTMENTS FROM SATELLITE INPUT 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- MEAN ADJUSTMENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES IR STD DEV 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES IR PIXEL COUNT 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL ADJUSTMENT 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE (KT) 4. 8. 12. 17. 23. 26. 24. 20. 14. 5. -7. -15. ** 2005 ATLANTIC RAPID INTENSITY INDEX ** ( 25 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) BETA 10/29/05 18 UTC 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): Value: 5.0 Range: -20.0 to 25.0 Scaled value: 0.88 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : Value: 6.5 Range: 42.5 to 2.5 Scaled value: 0.90 SST (C) : Value: 29.2 Range: 24.3 to 30.4 Scaled value: 0.80 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : Value: 85.3 Range: 27.1 to 136.4 Scaled value: 0.53 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): Value: 81.8 Range: 57.0 to 88.0 Scaled value: 0.80 % area w/pixels <-30 C: Value: 94.0 Range: 17.0 to 100.0 Scaled value: 0.93 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : Value: 15.3 Range: 37.5 to 8.0 Scaled value: 0.75 Scaled RI index= 5.60 Prob of RI= 56.8% is 4.7 times the sample mean(12.1%)