* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES/OHC INPUT INCLUDED * BETA 10/30/05 00 UTC TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 90 95 99 102 105 108 109 105 98 89 77 64 54 V (KT) LAND 90 95 99 67 50 34 29 27 27 27 27 27 27 SHEAR (KTS) 10 11 10 8 8 5 11 15 18 20 23 23 21 SHEAR DIR 143 154 165 176 173 208 150 195 195 205 195 210 204 SST (C) 29.2 29.2 29.2 29.1 28.9 28.5 28.4 28.4 28.4 28.6 28.6 28.6 28.5 POT. INT. (KT) 160 160 160 159 155 149 148 148 148 151 151 151 149 200 MB T (C) -52.7 -53.1 -53.2 -52.9 -52.7 -53.5 -52.9 -54.0 -53.5 -53.5 -53.8 -54.1 -53.7 TH_E DEV (C) 9 7 6 7 6 4 6 5 6 4 3 0 3 500-300 MB RH 57 51 52 49 47 48 46 49 53 50 43 36 32 MO FLX (M/S/D) -1 0 0 0 0 0 0 1 0 0 0 1 0 850 MB VORT 85 79 77 73 77 82 82 53 32 -6 -7 -14 -21 LAND (KM) 78 38 0 -64 -129 -199 -155 -143 -135 -142 -108 -139 -111 LAT (DEG N) 13.8 13.9 13.9 13.9 13.9 14.0 14.3 14.4 14.4 14.6 14.9 15.3 15.7 LONG(DEG W) 82.6 83.1 83.5 84.1 84.7 85.9 86.9 87.7 88.4 89.1 90.1 91.1 92.0 HEAT CONTENT 41 31 28 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI STORM HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KTS) 270/ 4 CX,CY: -3/ 0 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB) 512 (MEAN=643) 200 MB DIVERGENCE x10**5 (T=0) 64 (MEAN= 23) T-12 MAXIMUM WIND (KTS) 75 GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 100-300 KM RAD: 11.3 (MEAN=20.0) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 99.0 (MEAN=68.9) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 7. 8. 9. 10. 11. 11. 12. SST POTENTIAL 1. 4. 6. 8. 9. 8. 5. 2. 0. -3. -7. -11. VERTICAL SHEAR -1. -2. -3. -4. -3. -2. -4. -7. -10. -14. -16. -16. PERSISTENCE 3. 4. 4. 4. 3. 4. 4. 3. 2. 2. 1. 0. 200 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. THETA_E EXCESS 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -6. -7. -10. -12. -16. -18. 500-300 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 850 MB ENV. VORT. 1. 1. 2. 2. 4. 6. 7. 8. 7. 6. 5. 4. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 2. 2. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -7. -9. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 2. 2. 2. ---------------------------------------------------------- SUB-TOTAL CHANGE 5. 8. 11. 13. 16. 18. 14. 8. -1. -12. -24. -34. INTENSITY ADJUSTMENTS FROM SATELLITE INPUT 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- MEAN ADJUSTMENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES IR STD DEV 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES IR PIXEL COUNT 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL ADJUSTMENT 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. -2. -1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE (KT) 5. 9. 12. 15. 18. 19. 15. 8. -1. -13. -26. -36. ** 2005 ATLANTIC RAPID INTENSITY INDEX ** ( 25 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) BETA 10/30/05 00 UTC 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): Value: 15.0 Range: -20.0 to 25.0 Scaled value: 0.60 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : Value: 9.5 Range: 42.5 to 2.5 Scaled value: 0.82 SST (C) : Value: 29.1 Range: 24.3 to 30.4 Scaled value: 0.79 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : Value: 69.0 Range: 27.1 to 136.4 Scaled value: 0.38 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): Value: 81.2 Range: 57.0 to 88.0 Scaled value: 0.78 % area w/pixels <-30 C: Value: 98.0 Range: 17.0 to 100.0 Scaled value: 0.98 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : Value: 11.3 Range: 37.5 to 8.0 Scaled value: 0.89 Scaled RI index= 5.24 Prob of RI= 44.8% is 3.7 times the sample mean(12.1%)