* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES/OHC INPUT INCLUDED * INVEST 10/30/05 00 UTC TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 25 28 31 33 37 44 51 57 61 62 60 56 51 V (KT) LAND 25 28 31 33 37 44 51 57 45 50 47 44 39 SHEAR (KTS) 5 9 7 9 11 10 14 12 17 19 24 41 47 SHEAR DIR 215 217 228 253 255 262 249 267 240 259 252 255 253 SST (C) 28.9 28.9 29.0 29.1 29.3 29.8 29.7 29.4 29.5 29.3 28.9 28.4 27.6 POT. INT. (KT) 155 155 157 159 162 165 165 164 165 162 155 148 137 200 MB T (C) -53.7 -53.9 -53.9 -53.6 -53.5 -53.6 -53.4 -53.6 -53.4 -54.0 -54.3 -54.8 -55.5 TH_E DEV (C) 12 12 12 12 12 12 12 11 13 11 11 8 6 500-300 MB RH 33 35 41 42 44 47 50 52 50 61 66 63 64 MO FLX (M/S/D) 4 4 4 5 3 0 0 2 7 14 -3 0 2 850 MB VORT -4 -9 0 5 -7 -5 -11 -21 -34 -49 -30 -47 -45 LAND (KM) 894 841 669 524 425 477 211 94 -18 8 153 408 633 LAT (DEG N) 13.5 13.6 13.7 14.0 14.2 15.0 16.1 17.4 18.9 20.7 22.7 25.1 27.3 LONG(DEG W) 52.0 53.8 55.6 57.4 59.2 62.6 65.9 69.2 72.4 74.9 76.3 75.8 73.7 HEAT CONTENT 59 63 64 76 77 111 87 86 98 61 65 46 24 FORECAST TRACK FROM BAMM STORM HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KTS) 270/ 11 CX,CY: -10/ 0 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB) 458 (MEAN=643) 200 MB DIVERGENCE x10**5 (T=0) -24 (MEAN= 23) T-12 MAXIMUM WIND (KTS) 20 GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 100-300 KM RAD: 28.2 (MEAN=20.0) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 54.0 (MEAN=68.9) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 7. 8. 9. 10. 11. 11. 12. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 1. 2. 5. 10. 16. 19. 24. 27. 30. 32. VERTICAL SHEAR 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 7. 7. 7. 6. 4. 0. -4. PERSISTENCE 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 2. 1. 0. 0. 200 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 4. 5. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. 0. -2. 500-300 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 850 MB ENV. VORT. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -6. -8. -9. -10. -11. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 4. 5. 4. 3. 2. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -7. -9. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. ---------------------------------------------------------- SUB-TOTAL CHANGE 3. 5. 8. 11. 18. 25. 30. 33. 35. 33. 30. 27. INTENSITY ADJUSTMENTS FROM SATELLITE INPUT 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- MEAN ADJUSTMENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES IR STD DEV 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. GOES IR PIXEL COUNT 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 2. 1. 1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL ADJUSTMENT 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. -1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE (KT) 3. 6. 8. 12. 19. 26. 32. 36. 37. 35. 31. 26. ** 2005 ATLANTIC RAPID INTENSITY INDEX ** ( 25 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) INVEST 10/30/05 00 UTC 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): Value: 5.0 Range: -20.0 to 25.0 Scaled value: 0.88 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : Value: 8.3 Range: 42.5 to 2.5 Scaled value: 0.86 SST (C) : Value: 29.0 Range: 24.3 to 30.4 Scaled value: 0.78 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : Value: 132.7 Range: 27.1 to 136.4 Scaled value: 0.97 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): Value: 69.2 Range: 57.0 to 88.0 Scaled value: 0.39 % area w/pixels <-30 C: Value: 47.0 Range: 17.0 to 100.0 Scaled value: 0.36 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : Value: 28.2 Range: 37.5 to 8.0 Scaled value: 0.32 Scaled RI index= 4.55 Prob of RI= 20.7% is 1.7 times the sample mean(12.1%)