* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES/OHC INPUT INCLUDED * BETA 10/30/05 06 UTC TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 100 105 108 109 110 111 109 104 96 88 79 71 62 V (KT) LAND 100 86 67 50 40 31 28 27 27 27 27 27 27 SHEAR (KTS) 13 12 10 10 11 7 14 14 16 14 16 14 18 SHEAR DIR 137 148 145 153 163 131 169 172 190 194 193 223 238 SST (C) 29.3 29.3 29.2 28.9 28.6 28.2 28.1 28.1 28.2 28.3 28.5 28.6 28.6 POT. INT. (KT) 162 162 160 155 151 145 143 143 145 146 149 151 151 200 MB T (C) -53.0 -53.1 -52.8 -52.8 -53.2 -53.0 -53.3 -53.6 -53.7 -53.7 -53.9 -53.8 -53.7 TH_E DEV (C) 7 5 7 6 5 6 5 6 4 5 2 2 1 500-300 MB RH 58 55 55 51 46 51 51 56 58 52 50 42 34 MO FLX (M/S/D) 0 -1 -3 -2 -1 0 0 1 0 0 0 0 0 850 MB VORT 88 89 86 91 89 88 93 68 36 18 0 26 -9 LAND (KM) 43 -5 -54 -124 -194 -129 -84 -70 -77 -99 -99 -100 -132 LAT (DEG N) 13.3 13.3 13.3 13.4 13.5 13.4 13.5 13.7 13.8 14.0 14.4 14.9 15.4 LONG(DEG W) 83.1 83.6 84.0 84.7 85.3 86.5 87.2 87.7 88.1 88.7 89.5 90.4 91.4 HEAT CONTENT 57 58 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI STORM HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KTS) 245/ 7 CX,CY: -5/ -2 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB) 595 (MEAN=643) 200 MB DIVERGENCE x10**5 (T=0) 63 (MEAN= 23) T-12 MAXIMUM WIND (KTS) 80 GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 100-300 KM RAD: 14.5 (MEAN=20.0) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 96.0 (MEAN=68.9) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 7. 8. 9. 10. 11. 11. 12. SST POTENTIAL 2. 4. 6. 8. 8. 6. 2. -2. -6. -10. -14. -19. VERTICAL SHEAR -1. -3. -6. -7. -7. -10. -11. -13. -14. -15. -14. -13. PERSISTENCE 3. 4. 5. 4. 3. 3. 4. 3. 2. 2. 1. 0. 200 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. THETA_E EXCESS 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -5. -6. -9. -11. -14. -17. -20. 500-300 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 850 MB ENV. VORT. 1. 1. 2. 3. 5. 7. 9. 9. 9. 8. 8. 7. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -7. -9. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 2. 2. 2. ---------------------------------------------------------- SUB-TOTAL CHANGE 5. 8. 10. 11. 12. 9. 5. -3. -10. -19. -27. -37. INTENSITY ADJUSTMENTS FROM SATELLITE INPUT 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- MEAN ADJUSTMENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES IR STD DEV 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES IR PIXEL COUNT 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL ADJUSTMENT 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE (KT) 5. 8. 9. 10. 11. 9. 4. -4. -12. -21. -29. -38. ** 2005 ATLANTIC RAPID INTENSITY INDEX ** ( 25 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) BETA 10/30/05 06 UTC 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): Value: 20.0 Range: -20.0 to 25.0 Scaled value: 0.30 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : Value: 11.3 Range: 42.5 to 2.5 Scaled value: 0.78 SST (C) : Value: 29.1 Range: 24.3 to 30.4 Scaled value: 0.78 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : Value: 58.1 Range: 27.1 to 136.4 Scaled value: 0.28 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): Value: 83.4 Range: 57.0 to 88.0 Scaled value: 0.85 % area w/pixels <-30 C: Value: 93.0 Range: 17.0 to 100.0 Scaled value: 0.92 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : Value: 14.5 Range: 37.5 to 8.0 Scaled value: 0.78 Scaled RI index= 4.69 Prob of RI= 24.9% is 2.1 times the sample mean(12.1%)