* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES/OHC INPUT INCLUDED * INVEST 10/30/05 06 UTC TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 25 27 29 32 34 41 48 55 59 61 60 57 51 V (KT) LAND 25 27 29 32 34 41 48 48 52 53 52 49 43 SHEAR (KTS) 9 11 14 16 15 13 12 6 13 18 30 44 54 SHEAR DIR 217 225 247 251 254 252 275 268 242 266 237 249 251 SST (C) 29.0 29.0 29.1 29.3 29.7 29.8 29.6 29.5 29.6 29.1 28.6 27.8 27.1 POT. INT. (KT) 157 157 159 162 165 165 165 165 165 159 151 139 131 200 MB T (C) -53.9 -53.8 -53.5 -53.2 -53.3 -53.3 -53.3 -53.4 -53.6 -53.8 -54.2 -54.7 -55.5 TH_E DEV (C) 12 11 12 12 12 13 11 12 12 11 10 8 5 500-300 MB RH 37 39 42 42 49 47 53 52 53 60 56 57 57 MO FLX (M/S/D) 4 5 7 7 0 3 5 3 2 0 4 14 -5 850 MB VORT -6 2 13 1 0 17 0 -12 -31 -5 -15 0 -44 LAND (KM) 817 642 482 380 367 357 217 -4 56 67 357 703 817 LAT (DEG N) 13.5 13.6 13.6 13.9 14.1 15.0 16.2 17.8 19.5 21.6 24.2 26.9 29.4 LONG(DEG W) 54.0 55.8 57.6 59.4 61.2 64.7 68.0 71.3 74.0 75.5 75.1 73.0 70.6 HEAT CONTENT 64 65 75 76 83 91 94 97 88 54 50 25 10 FORECAST TRACK FROM BAMM STORM HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KTS) 270/ 12 CX,CY: -11/ 0 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB) 523 (MEAN=643) 200 MB DIVERGENCE x10**5 (T=0) 6 (MEAN= 23) T-12 MAXIMUM WIND (KTS) 20 GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 100-300 KM RAD: 29.7 (MEAN=20.0) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 31.0 (MEAN=68.9) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 7. 8. 9. 10. 11. 11. 12. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 0. 2. 5. 10. 16. 20. 24. 27. 30. 31. VERTICAL SHEAR 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 4. 2. -2. -6. PERSISTENCE 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 2. 1. 0. 0. 200 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 5. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -3. 500-300 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 850 MB ENV. VORT. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -6. -6. -7. -7. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 3. 2. 2. 1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -7. -9. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. ---------------------------------------------------------- SUB-TOTAL CHANGE 2. 5. 7. 10. 16. 22. 28. 32. 34. 33. 31. 27. INTENSITY ADJUSTMENTS FROM SATELLITE INPUT 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- MEAN ADJUSTMENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES IR STD DEV 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES IR PIXEL COUNT -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -2. -1. -1. 0. 1. 0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 2. 1. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL ADJUSTMENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. -1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE (KT) 2. 5. 7. 9. 16. 23. 30. 34. 36. 35. 32. 26. ** 2005 ATLANTIC RAPID INTENSITY INDEX ** ( 25 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) INVEST 10/30/05 06 UTC 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): Value: 5.0 Range: -20.0 to 25.0 Scaled value: 0.88 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : Value: 13.1 Range: 42.5 to 2.5 Scaled value: 0.73 SST (C) : Value: 29.2 Range: 24.3 to 30.4 Scaled value: 0.81 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : Value: 134.9 Range: 27.1 to 136.4 Scaled value: 0.99 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): Value: 69.0 Range: 57.0 to 88.0 Scaled value: 0.39 % area w/pixels <-30 C: Value: 24.0 Range: 17.0 to 100.0 Scaled value: 0.08 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : Value: 29.7 Range: 37.5 to 8.0 Scaled value: 0.26 Scaled RI index= 4.15 Prob of RI= 13.5% is 1.1 times the sample mean(12.1%)