* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES/OHC INPUT INCLUDED * BETA 10/30/05 12 UTC TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 90 90 90 90 90 87 82 74 65 56 48 43 39 V (KT) LAND 90 64 49 39 34 32 27 20 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS SHEAR (KTS) 15 14 15 15 8 18 16 23 23 24 17 N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 138 130 131 149 145 139 157 157 173 182 197 9999 9999 SST (C) 29.3 29.1 28.7 28.3 28.0 27.9 28.0 28.3 28.5 28.3 28.4 N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 162 159 152 146 142 141 142 146 149 146 148 N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -53.0 -52.7 -52.7 -53.1 -53.5 -53.0 -53.9 -53.5 -54.0 -53.9 -54.2 N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 5 6 6 6 4 5 4 4 2 3 1 N/A N/A 500-300 MB RH 59 56 52 45 45 39 45 46 42 35 32 N/A N/A MO FLX (M/S/D) -1 -2 -3 -2 0 0 3 0 3 1 1 N/A N/A 850 MB VORT 86 90 89 91 93 85 69 42 16 7 -8 N/A N/A LAND (KM) 0 -60 -118 -141 -87 10 77 108 143 206 227 N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 12.9 12.7 12.5 12.5 12.4 12.3 12.4 12.6 12.9 13.3 13.8 N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 83.5 84.1 84.7 85.4 86.0 87.2 88.6 90.2 92.0 93.7 95.4 N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 70 9999 9999 9999 9999 9 9 15 17 13 20 9999 9999 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI STORM HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KTS) 235/ 6 CX,CY: -4/ -2 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB) 614 (MEAN=643) 200 MB DIVERGENCE x10**5 (T=0) 71 (MEAN= 23) T-12 MAXIMUM WIND (KTS) 90 GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 100-300 KM RAD: 18.7 (MEAN=20.0) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 77.0 (MEAN=68.9) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 7. 8. 9. 10. 11. 11. 12. SST POTENTIAL 2. 4. 5. 7. 7. 5. 3. 0. -2. -5. -9. -12. VERTICAL SHEAR -2. -4. -7. -9. -13. -18. -22. -27. -32. -33. -32. -30. PERSISTENCE 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 200 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. THETA_E EXCESS 0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -5. -7. -9. -12. -15. -18. -20. 500-300 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. 850 MB ENV. VORT. 1. 1. 2. 3. 5. 6. 7. 8. 7. 6. 7. 7. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -7. -9. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. ---------------------------------------------------------- SUB-TOTAL CHANGE 1. 1. 1. 2. 0. -6. -13. -22. -32. -40. -45. -50. INTENSITY ADJUSTMENTS FROM SATELLITE INPUT 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- MEAN ADJUSTMENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES IR STD DEV -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. GOES IR PIXEL COUNT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL ADJUSTMENT -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE (KT) 0. 0. 0. 1. -3. -8. -16. -25. -34. -42. -47. -51. ** 2005 ATLANTIC RAPID INTENSITY INDEX ** ( 25 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) BETA 10/30/05 12 UTC 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): Value: 0.0 Range: -20.0 to 25.0 Scaled value: 0.71 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : Value: 13.4 Range: 42.5 to 2.5 Scaled value: 0.73 SST (C) : Value: 28.7 Range: 24.3 to 30.4 Scaled value: 0.72 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : Value: 62.2 Range: 27.1 to 136.4 Scaled value: 0.32 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): Value: 84.4 Range: 57.0 to 88.0 Scaled value: 0.88 % area w/pixels <-30 C: Value: 63.0 Range: 17.0 to 100.0 Scaled value: 0.55 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : Value: 18.7 Range: 37.5 to 8.0 Scaled value: 0.64 Scaled RI index= 4.55 Prob of RI= 20.6% is 1.7 times the sample mean(12.1%)