* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES AND/OR OHC INPUT MISSING * BETA 10/30/05 18 UTC TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 65 58 55 54 53 49 45 38 33 31 31 33 31 V (KT) LAND 65 49 39 34 37 33 29 22 17 15 15 17 15 SHEAR (KTS) 13 17 16 12 13 22 21 26 21 19 N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 114 123 145 144 141 166 165 176 187 203 9999 9999 9999 SST (C) 29.1 28.6 28.2 27.9 27.9 28.1 28.4 28.2 28.2 28.9 N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 159 151 145 141 141 143 148 145 145 155 N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -52.8 -52.8 -53.3 -53.5 -53.3 -53.8 -54.0 -53.6 -53.9 -53.9 N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 6 6 5 4 6 4 5 4 4 4 N/A N/A N/A 500-300 MB RH 63 57 52 49 44 35 34 31 28 29 N/A N/A N/A MO FLX (M/S/D) 0 -2 -1 0 0 5 0 4 6 3 N/A N/A N/A 850 MB VORT 98 92 88 91 84 64 48 3 -36 -31 N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) -60 -134 -110 -30 49 138 213 318 344 330 N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 12.7 12.5 12.3 12.2 12.1 12.0 12.1 12.2 12.6 13.0 N/A N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 84.1 84.9 85.6 86.6 87.5 89.5 91.7 94.0 96.2 98.1 N/A N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 9999 9999 9999 9999 8 13 13 10 15 21 9999 9999 9999 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI STORM HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KTS) 260/ 6 CX,CY: -5/ 0 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB) 617 (MEAN=643) 200 MB DIVERGENCE x10**5 (T=0) 77 (MEAN= 23) T-12 MAXIMUM WIND (KTS) 100 GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 100-300 KM RAD: -99.0 (MEAN=20.0) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: -99.0 (MEAN=68.9) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 7. 8. 9. 10. 11. 11. 12. SST POTENTIAL 1. 3. 4. 5. 7. 8. 8. 8. 9. 8. 7. 5. VERTICAL SHEAR -1. -3. -4. -6. -11. -15. -21. -25. -28. -30. -31. -30. PERSISTENCE -9. -13. -16. -18. -20. -21. -21. -18. -13. -9. -3. -1. 200 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. THETA_E EXCESS 0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -5. -7. -9. -12. -14. -17. -19. 500-300 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. 850 MB ENV. VORT. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. 5. 3. 3. 4. 4. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -7. -9. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 2. ---------------------------------------------------------- SUB-TOTAL CHANGE -7. -10. -11. -12. -16. -20. -27. -32. -34. -34. -32. -34. INTENSITY ADJUSTMENTS FROM SATELLITE INPUT 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- MEAN ADJUSTMENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES IR STD DEV 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES IR PIXEL COUNT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL ADJUSTMENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE (KT) -7. -10. -11. -12. -16. -20. -27. -32. -34. -34. -32. -34. ** 2005 ATLANTIC RAPID INTENSITY INDEX ** ( 25 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) BETA 10/30/05 18 UTC 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): Value: -35.0 Range: -20.0 to 25.0 Scaled value: 0.00 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : Value: 14.2 Range: 42.5 to 2.5 Scaled value: 0.71 SST (C) : Value: 28.3 Range: 24.3 to 30.4 Scaled value: 0.66 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : Value: 82.1 Range: 27.1 to 136.4 Scaled value: 0.50 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): Value: 84.4 Range: 57.0 to 88.0 Scaled value: 0.88 % area w/pixels <-30 C: Value: 38.0 Range: 17.0 to 100.0 Scaled value: 0.25 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : Value: 17.4 Range: 37.5 to 8.0 Scaled value: 0.68 Scaled RI index= 3.69 Prob of RI= 8.0% is 0.7 times the sample mean(12.1%)